10/21/2004 10:06:21 AM
It does not really matter which Candidate wins in the American political process, as both will be faced with a give set of problems and issues. How the Winner will deal with this matrix, will determine his place in history. This is an article based on the problems, and some possible projections. We have a Budget Deficit, a Trade Deficit, and a military personnel shortage. This combines with hyperinflation levels of health care price increases. We are facing increased Energy costs, a slowing economy, and Unemployment is edging upwards as the economy sheds Jobs. Foreign purchase of U.S. Treasuries is declining, to the point that the Budget Deficit will not be covered by next June, if the current rate of nonpurchase continues. What does it all mean? The Economy is tanking, though it is not obvious yet, and disputed by most Economists.
Imports are increasing, and domestic manufacturing is still declining, though some Economists insist some recovery has been made. They can do this only by assessing Dollar amounts, not actual Product produced. Whenever foreigners fail to pick up the Deficit of Government spending, the Dollar will devalue. Government will have to cease spending in excess of revenues at that time. Dollar devaluation can be a misnomer to those uneducated in Economics. What it actually means is the Imports We currently consume will become a lot more expensive. We will pay $15 for that shirt from China, instead of the $10 We do today. Complete failure of foreigners to pick up the Deficits of both Government and Trade could mean that Toyoto costs the same Dollars as that Cadillac. The new President will have to raise taxes, or cut Government expenditures, or both.
He will have to get Us out of Iraq, or institute a Draft. He will reign over an Economy which is transferring from Imports to domestic products, as Imports become too expensive. He will have to advocate a national health care system, as escalating health care costs prohibit private consumption. All Pensions will have to be absorbed by the Government, as Accounting for Pension benefits is destroying Business and Corporate profitability. Domestic unemployment will cure itself, what with the rise in the cost of Imports, as well as an instituted Draft. Failure of the President to work on these things will mean complete breakdown before 2009.
Most will call what I have written here as Doomsaying, but it is not; I think this is the best opportunity the American economy has had since the end of WWII. Resolution of these Issues efficiently will lead to a stronger, more viable United States, less dependent upon the World for it's basic maintenance, while being a good Trading partner. lgl