David Leonhardt failed to understand the real context of medical research today. He would imagine that Researchers are thinking to find the absolute best method to treat Patients of any Disorder. The reality is that they are seeking to justify their research budgets, and the Concept of Best Treatment has little sway in the analysis. The world of Medicine has found the Value of Confusion in the discussions on research fund allocation, and the good little bureaucrats have quickly learned to adjust their written Requests for Funds. No medical doctor will go on the Record as to the effectiveness of various Treatments for any ailments, as they face the serious ostracism generated by a institutional Special Interest group for doing so. A probable One-Third of all medical treatments are either Worthless or Obsolete; but you will not hear this from Doctors, who must face the funded Wrath of Drug companies and Research facilities. Of course, Doctors live in a Glass House; 80% of all medical treatments satisfy less than 20% of Patient desire (the statistics outline only the Opinion of the Author, not effective economic research).
Ezra Klein may be like unto myself and only marginally Correct, but I enjoy his approach to the medical problems of the Age. Administration Costs always expand with the employment of labor, who find a compelling need to earn their Keep with some false sense of financial savings in the employment. This artificial industry catches little fraud in terms of total volume, but grants Everyone a sense of purpose. I personally would take the Doctor’s word for it, along with assigning heavy Penalties for violations; a favorite of mine is a 3 for 1 repayment of false Charges; no Prison term, as this only increases Cost, while taking their House has real value added. A real repayment could be guaranteed by restricting their ability to practice Medicine until the bill is paid. One has to threaten all those years of hard-earned position.
Does doubling down on a bad bet work? There are Some who say that We did not blow enough Money the first time, and Some who disagree. I believe that three very important Questions should be asked and answered concerning Stimulus. The first is ‘Did the first package achieve desired goals?’–the answer is No! Will a second Stimulus package help the Obama goal of reducing Unemployment?–the answer is No! Have they even found methods to spend the first Stimulus package?–the answer is No!. Stimulus which does not get spent creates only Debt, not Employment or Business performance. Why do I feel like there is a dis-associative quality to all of this debate, where over-active policy has no viable Vent? I have an alternate Plan: I would open up every Voting booth in the Country, and pay every Voter $25 every time they Voted on current issues of the Day; it would not only give Stimulus, but eventually develop general political trends which Politicians should follow. Sound Crazy?–it is early this Morning. lgl
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
What is Wrong with This?
I am linking to this Post basically due to the fact that it was written by Arnold Kling and very good, and it made me think of alternative forms of Employment. I do very well at fantasy games, and believe that I can present a stellar performance. There simply had to be a better method of Hiring, and Retention of Labor. The first Need I found was that the Employee must have much greater Protection than the current system allows. I quickly decided that We must have a universal health care system, as much for Business as for Labor. There had to be a limited expansion of health costs, no matter the depth and length of the illness; only a universal system and overbearing Government could ensure that medical benefits achieve the practical results. I envision a relatively cheap general Coverage at a low monthly rate supplied by both Employer and Employee; I would suggest something like a matching payment of $300 per month. Private Insurance could provide Specialty policies, whose rates should remind of Medicare Supplement insurance today. The Specialty policies would guarantee medical treatments potentially disallowed by the universal insurance because of Cost–this health care system would likely have fundamental base around Hospice Care. People will wonder How it helps Business, and I would state that the underwriting enactment should prohibit Employer contribution to the defined Specialty Insurance.
The second Need in Employment has to be greater protection for Labor. I think Congress or State should enact legislation creating a formalized Labor Contract, and insist that these Contracts be filed with a Government agency, who would be entailed to Hear all initial Labor Employment cases. The Contracts would have to be filed before Employment is recognized–which means Business cannot record Labor Costs until they are filed. The uniform Contracts must list the Probationary Period length, the rate of Pay until Probation is over, and the agreed Buyout price if the Employer finds the employment unworkable. All Contracts would be no longer than 5 years duration, when a new Contract must be negotiated between Employer and Employee. All Contracts will stipulate How much Salary or Wage must be granted in each year of the Contract, and the alternate Cost of Payment for being Laid-off after the Probationary Period. The Employer will also have greater Protection in the Contracts, with stipulation of a Cost to Employees which must be paid to the Employer upon failure to maintain labor service; they having a limited power of garnishment against labor’s future Wages and Salaries, if the Employers can prove abandonment for higher Wages or Salaries without proven labor service duress.
I look at my previous paragraph, and think it is way too complicated. I am continuing to think, though, and find it is too efficient a system to be discarded. Both Sides gain, and with the current Cost of Employee Hires including Search, it is something whose Day has come. I don’t know if I would like to work under such Constraints, but there has to be relief from the current Personnel dogma. I await commentary, as I know that the Subject remains disliked by both Sides. lgl
The second Need in Employment has to be greater protection for Labor. I think Congress or State should enact legislation creating a formalized Labor Contract, and insist that these Contracts be filed with a Government agency, who would be entailed to Hear all initial Labor Employment cases. The Contracts would have to be filed before Employment is recognized–which means Business cannot record Labor Costs until they are filed. The uniform Contracts must list the Probationary Period length, the rate of Pay until Probation is over, and the agreed Buyout price if the Employer finds the employment unworkable. All Contracts would be no longer than 5 years duration, when a new Contract must be negotiated between Employer and Employee. All Contracts will stipulate How much Salary or Wage must be granted in each year of the Contract, and the alternate Cost of Payment for being Laid-off after the Probationary Period. The Employer will also have greater Protection in the Contracts, with stipulation of a Cost to Employees which must be paid to the Employer upon failure to maintain labor service; they having a limited power of garnishment against labor’s future Wages and Salaries, if the Employers can prove abandonment for higher Wages or Salaries without proven labor service duress.
I look at my previous paragraph, and think it is way too complicated. I am continuing to think, though, and find it is too efficient a system to be discarded. Both Sides gain, and with the current Cost of Employee Hires including Search, it is something whose Day has come. I don’t know if I would like to work under such Constraints, but there has to be relief from the current Personnel dogma. I await commentary, as I know that the Subject remains disliked by both Sides. lgl
Monday, July 06, 2009
How to Define Economics
I just hate it every time Dean Baker gives Us a Post which just must be read, because then I have to type the complicated link phrasing; so you know this one must be Good. The real gem of this Story lies in this paragraph:
The story in this picture was an $8 trillion housing bubble. This hugely distorted the real economy by causing housing construction to expand as a share of GDP by 50 percent above its normal level. The bubble wealth also generated an enormous wave of consumption that pushed the saving rate into negative territory. It was inevitable that this story would end badly, because there is no easy way to replace the loss of $450 billion in annual demand generated from construction and $600-$800 billion of housing bubble wealth driven consumption.
I will try to provide a little more Insight by explaining the paragraph. About $4 trillion of an overextended economy dropped from Sight almost immediately, along with about an initial million Jobs. The $450 billion of annual demand generated from construction became about $275 billion in about one month annualized. The housing bubble wealth driven consumption disappeared relatively in total, and the economy lost another million Jobs from the loss. The Downturn began to make Bonuses and Incentive Pay evaporate, which has an almost 1:1 ratio in lost Consumption Demand. There was not only a loss of Consumer Confidence; it was based upon a real loss of Consumer Paycheck. It was only the coup de gras that the Banks stopped lending Money.
I will refer my Readers to this Post, although I wonder exactly what William Polley is trying to promote. He and Chris Dillow would criticize the principles of economics, while I ask if such principles actually exist. The Student must first realize that the economy is not a mathematical model, but a wild beast which wonders human affairs for Grazing; something it finds ample, or sometimes not. The beast depends on the Inputs as Feed, and bad provision from humanity can injure the Process. Free Tech can improve the Inputs system, but lack of payment does distort the Consumption cycle. Central bank policy follows the same path as Free Tech, an here, lack of payment also possesses its own danger. My only advise to Students is this: The World is not a simplistic place, and the economy which feeds upon it cannot be any more rational being; economic models look for standard and uniform Rules, which will never be found. A wise old man once said that the World was a place abused by God, and economics was what the Devil could make of the mess. I suggested that the deities should be reversed, and his reply was essentially that it would not matter. lgl
The story in this picture was an $8 trillion housing bubble. This hugely distorted the real economy by causing housing construction to expand as a share of GDP by 50 percent above its normal level. The bubble wealth also generated an enormous wave of consumption that pushed the saving rate into negative territory. It was inevitable that this story would end badly, because there is no easy way to replace the loss of $450 billion in annual demand generated from construction and $600-$800 billion of housing bubble wealth driven consumption.
I will try to provide a little more Insight by explaining the paragraph. About $4 trillion of an overextended economy dropped from Sight almost immediately, along with about an initial million Jobs. The $450 billion of annual demand generated from construction became about $275 billion in about one month annualized. The housing bubble wealth driven consumption disappeared relatively in total, and the economy lost another million Jobs from the loss. The Downturn began to make Bonuses and Incentive Pay evaporate, which has an almost 1:1 ratio in lost Consumption Demand. There was not only a loss of Consumer Confidence; it was based upon a real loss of Consumer Paycheck. It was only the coup de gras that the Banks stopped lending Money.
I will refer my Readers to this Post, although I wonder exactly what William Polley is trying to promote. He and Chris Dillow would criticize the principles of economics, while I ask if such principles actually exist. The Student must first realize that the economy is not a mathematical model, but a wild beast which wonders human affairs for Grazing; something it finds ample, or sometimes not. The beast depends on the Inputs as Feed, and bad provision from humanity can injure the Process. Free Tech can improve the Inputs system, but lack of payment does distort the Consumption cycle. Central bank policy follows the same path as Free Tech, an here, lack of payment also possesses its own danger. My only advise to Students is this: The World is not a simplistic place, and the economy which feeds upon it cannot be any more rational being; economic models look for standard and uniform Rules, which will never be found. A wise old man once said that the World was a place abused by God, and economics was what the Devil could make of the mess. I suggested that the deities should be reversed, and his reply was essentially that it would not matter. lgl
Saturday, July 04, 2009
And then It exploded!
I would agree with Paul Krugman once in a while, except for the fact that it is so much Fun disagreeing with him. Paul is looking to create 8.5 million new Jobs; not even God could do this, not in 7 Days, not in 7 years. There are saturation limits to almost every economic endeavor, and the Unemployment data simply reflects We have reached a saturation point in the labor market. This will alter drastically with the retirement of the Baby Boomers, but it will still result in a low Employment number for the current administration. We have an overall reduced Consumption level, a reduced Import quantity, a smaller Export level, and a Pile-up of experienced Technicians who insist on a higher Wage level than Business is currently ready to Pay. We have to face the issue of whether We want to go back to the fraudulent flow of Cash which brought the Financial Crisis, or exist with a lower GDP; the Reader should recognize that the Unemployment numbers only express a Withdrawal from such financing. Paul would replace it with Government Spending, itself just as delusional and fraudulent; simply utilizing a new group of Investors–this time mainly foreign central banks who can ill-afford a loss of capital outflow with no Return. Further Government Spending will make the United States responsible for suppression of the World economy.
Here is an article which explains to great degree How We arrived at the financial crisis in the first place. The Reader might want to play a Game, and I suggest that Everyone read this article replacing the word ‘Bank’, substituting the word ‘Government’. Does the Game seem stupid? It will not in the months ahead! Brokers want easing of regulation for these brokered Deposits, which means introducing more Wildcatting into the matrix. It will always be a battle between Those who wanted rapid Growth, and Those who insist on something left at the end of the Day. I belong to the later Camp, if any of you wonder at my own allegiance.
I am going to quit Now, because I have criticized Everyone’s opinion except my own; and Someone told me once that one should not put yourself down, there being multitudes who would enjoy doing that for you. I wish you All well, and happy 4th of July. Fire off a firecracker for me, just not under my lawn chair. lgl
Here is an article which explains to great degree How We arrived at the financial crisis in the first place. The Reader might want to play a Game, and I suggest that Everyone read this article replacing the word ‘Bank’, substituting the word ‘Government’. Does the Game seem stupid? It will not in the months ahead! Brokers want easing of regulation for these brokered Deposits, which means introducing more Wildcatting into the matrix. It will always be a battle between Those who wanted rapid Growth, and Those who insist on something left at the end of the Day. I belong to the later Camp, if any of you wonder at my own allegiance.
I am going to quit Now, because I have criticized Everyone’s opinion except my own; and Someone told me once that one should not put yourself down, there being multitudes who would enjoy doing that for you. I wish you All well, and happy 4th of July. Fire off a firecracker for me, just not under my lawn chair. lgl
Friday, July 03, 2009
Outrage reduced to Outrageous
William Buiter effectively explains, though a little long-winded, why the central banks are playing to an empty house. No economic ploy like quantitative easing, credit-easing, or enhanced credit will work without two conditions being served–both concurrently: 1) the lending institutions must make a higher Profit from the easing–at least the promise of higher Profit; and 2) the lending institutions must have the confidence to lend without extreme Charges or Conditions on the Applicant. The two factors work against each other in practice. Doubt has been introduced into the Collection process of lending. The higher Profits insist on the full Return of the funds, and the derived Interest. Before the Crisis in the midst of the Boom, loans were extended on a vague Promise and provision of a Rose; Now, if you are in need of the loan in the first place, you are likely to be too great a Risk. Banks have to be reassured of a Profit prior to lending; and under these Conditions, the Applicant would be better served finding investment partners–think of Public issuance of bonds. I once proposed a Store booth in retail outlets, offering bonds backed by company assets at 2% over the current Bank rates locally; evading bank regulations if issuing only their own company bonds at the outlets. A clearly written liability would likely receive a greater Subscription from a Consumer, than it would from a Banker; and will probably be of less Interest than the Borrower would have to pay a Bank.
Stan Liebowitz goes to the trouble of analyzing the Causes of the foreclosure rates in the Mortgage industry. He finds that walking away from negative equity mortgages was the greatest culprit, and he blames the insufficiency of Down Payment amount as responsible; a factor which I might suggest is doubtful in the Consumer decision. People were taught to live off their net equity, establishing their expenditure patterns from the amounts that Credit Cards would allow. These were effectively cut down and further taxed in Interest with the Crisis, and Mortgage holders dismissed the Mortgage payments in favor of paying the Consumer Debt; especially after cheaper commercial housing became available. Stan himself highlights a false Curative, as mortgage holders will walk away anytime the Mortgage turns into their enemy.
Only the diligently deceitful could ignore this charade. It shows the value of risking other peoples’ money, rather than your own. A year into the worst Recession since the Great Depression according to many economic sources, and the heavy Movers in Wall Street have deemed it necessary to almost double their Salaries and Bonuses. What was the major source of the sleazy economic practice which was the major cause of the financial crisis–Wall Street. Who was primarily responsible for the Sale of bad paper leading to the Crisis–Wall Street. Who forbade an early resolution of the Crisis by refusing to accept an reevaluation of the bad paper, which would have incurred Write Downs on which blame could be assigned–Wall Street. Who has been fired or Laid Off on Wall Street–Hundreds from the lower Ranks, Few of the major Movers. Who thinks that Wall Street should be paid more for the financial dislocation of the past months–only Wall Street. We should do something about this, but our new, modern News outlets owned by the major corporations rarely breathes a Word about the great hardship endured by the poor, underpaid Wall Street Kings. lgl
Stan Liebowitz goes to the trouble of analyzing the Causes of the foreclosure rates in the Mortgage industry. He finds that walking away from negative equity mortgages was the greatest culprit, and he blames the insufficiency of Down Payment amount as responsible; a factor which I might suggest is doubtful in the Consumer decision. People were taught to live off their net equity, establishing their expenditure patterns from the amounts that Credit Cards would allow. These were effectively cut down and further taxed in Interest with the Crisis, and Mortgage holders dismissed the Mortgage payments in favor of paying the Consumer Debt; especially after cheaper commercial housing became available. Stan himself highlights a false Curative, as mortgage holders will walk away anytime the Mortgage turns into their enemy.
Only the diligently deceitful could ignore this charade. It shows the value of risking other peoples’ money, rather than your own. A year into the worst Recession since the Great Depression according to many economic sources, and the heavy Movers in Wall Street have deemed it necessary to almost double their Salaries and Bonuses. What was the major source of the sleazy economic practice which was the major cause of the financial crisis–Wall Street. Who was primarily responsible for the Sale of bad paper leading to the Crisis–Wall Street. Who forbade an early resolution of the Crisis by refusing to accept an reevaluation of the bad paper, which would have incurred Write Downs on which blame could be assigned–Wall Street. Who has been fired or Laid Off on Wall Street–Hundreds from the lower Ranks, Few of the major Movers. Who thinks that Wall Street should be paid more for the financial dislocation of the past months–only Wall Street. We should do something about this, but our new, modern News outlets owned by the major corporations rarely breathes a Word about the great hardship endured by the poor, underpaid Wall Street Kings. lgl
Thursday, July 02, 2009
Much Ado about Nothing
Reiki and the Inquisition. The Nuns are in hot water, because of the ‘Laying on Hands’ business and their refusal to come out with a Public Statement opposing the ordination of women as Priests. It is a fight for the Ages, in a Time when religious orders find huge losses in their Ranks; all because of the rigidity of their structure, as ordered by a group of almost senile old White men. The last thing religious orders need is a public exhibition of the penal structure of the orders. The only good element in the entire Incident lay in the extreme Age of the Crusaders, who will lose power when the current Pope plays a Michael Jackson. My only sadness resides in the fact that I too loved the old traditionalism; fond memories of the old parochial school days, tempered by the fact that I switched to Public School because religion became too oppressive.
No one can smile over the Jobs Report. The markets are doing a dance, wondering just How to respond to this latest tidbit of information. It is a dry day on the market floor, with Most flying Paper airplanes instead of operating orders. So many Workers are traveling to their July 4th celebrations that one can imagine that the Jobs Report came from the market floor. It is the same throughout the U.S., and likely the World. No one plans any serious business, and that might be the best News for the release of the poor data. Cherish the small Boons, as now Everyone will mull over the information through the Weekend. A better Outcome could probably not be found.
Read this Post to realize the complete failure of any form of a Gas Tax. No one takes the Prius to the Ballpark, or on a long Trip. The real miles put on use the SUV, not the prison-like atmosphere of a compact car. What use is playing ‘King of the Road’ if you have the smallest vehicle on the Road? Nothing is going to switch Parents to the smaller vehicles, and such taxes will only further afflict honest Job-Holders who are trying to pay off the Mortgage. Why is it that only the Innocent get impacted by Taxes? I truly in a ‘Soak the Rich’ mood today. lgl
No one can smile over the Jobs Report. The markets are doing a dance, wondering just How to respond to this latest tidbit of information. It is a dry day on the market floor, with Most flying Paper airplanes instead of operating orders. So many Workers are traveling to their July 4th celebrations that one can imagine that the Jobs Report came from the market floor. It is the same throughout the U.S., and likely the World. No one plans any serious business, and that might be the best News for the release of the poor data. Cherish the small Boons, as now Everyone will mull over the information through the Weekend. A better Outcome could probably not be found.
Read this Post to realize the complete failure of any form of a Gas Tax. No one takes the Prius to the Ballpark, or on a long Trip. The real miles put on use the SUV, not the prison-like atmosphere of a compact car. What use is playing ‘King of the Road’ if you have the smallest vehicle on the Road? Nothing is going to switch Parents to the smaller vehicles, and such taxes will only further afflict honest Job-Holders who are trying to pay off the Mortgage. Why is it that only the Innocent get impacted by Taxes? I truly in a ‘Soak the Rich’ mood today. lgl
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Recession on the Road
Don’t you wish that Someone would get it Right? Acetaminophen is bad for your liver, and the Patient can easily Overdose; in 2005, American Consumers were given almost 28 billion doses of the stuff. Now comes a Panel which suggests a ban on Percocet and Vicodin, without any proposed replacement for the Painkillers. I first ask why in God’s name are so many people taking Painkillers; and secondly, Why are Doctors not ranting against the Drug addiction prevalent in American society. I believe it is only like unto the Madoff victims’ suit against the SEC, establishing the grounds for future lawsuits. Doctors avoid personal responsibility by suggestion that the federal government should act, while there is no action to take. I ride the rugged saddle of advocating a federal commission to ban legal action where no effective Judicial action could be determined; which would preclude Transfers of Cash based upon failure of common Public beliefs.
Dinner Theater for the Insane? Iraq wants to recapitalize its Oil industry, and Oil companies are unwilling to play. First, they want $4 a barrel just to pump Oil, then they will take $2 a barrel, but only want to develop a field already in production. I am not quite sure, but estimate this would leave Iraq producing less Oil than currently being pumped. The Situation leaves Iraq in worse position economically, than it was in under Saddam. The Oil companies want to forget the Oil Embargo of 1973, at least in the case of Iraq. Isn’t it a wonder How a business-oriented Country like the United States can develop such good relations with a nation like Iraq?
Business America is not any more gentle with their fellow Americans; consider this AIG performance. There was not even the suggestion that Stockholders should receive anything, though credit swap defaults need be totally repaid; no one could advance such a radical idea that business should suffer some of the loss themselves. I would advance the concept that Stockholders be paid 17% of Investment value by Stockholders upon purchase of the Stock from federal funds, just to bolster Public confidence in Investment. Claimants against the Company would get 71% of the actual purchase price of the Swaps purchased–a normal Profit loss ballpark for poor Investment decisions. Company and federal government should tell All that individual business decisions must bear some responsibility for poor business performance. lgl
Dinner Theater for the Insane? Iraq wants to recapitalize its Oil industry, and Oil companies are unwilling to play. First, they want $4 a barrel just to pump Oil, then they will take $2 a barrel, but only want to develop a field already in production. I am not quite sure, but estimate this would leave Iraq producing less Oil than currently being pumped. The Situation leaves Iraq in worse position economically, than it was in under Saddam. The Oil companies want to forget the Oil Embargo of 1973, at least in the case of Iraq. Isn’t it a wonder How a business-oriented Country like the United States can develop such good relations with a nation like Iraq?
Business America is not any more gentle with their fellow Americans; consider this AIG performance. There was not even the suggestion that Stockholders should receive anything, though credit swap defaults need be totally repaid; no one could advance such a radical idea that business should suffer some of the loss themselves. I would advance the concept that Stockholders be paid 17% of Investment value by Stockholders upon purchase of the Stock from federal funds, just to bolster Public confidence in Investment. Claimants against the Company would get 71% of the actual purchase price of the Swaps purchased–a normal Profit loss ballpark for poor Investment decisions. Company and federal government should tell All that individual business decisions must bear some responsibility for poor business performance. lgl
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