Friday, July 18, 2008

Advise from a Man with little Position in the Market

Americans need to export the true methods for Crowd Control. We are not talking Cops swinging Clubs here, but numerous Tire Recycling Centers. We might also go foreign on some things, like rioting outside the Stock Exchanges when Stock Prices drop. Americans have lost their sense of adventure, Rioting only over something like Rodney King; hell, most white Americans have not been in a Riot since the days of their Great-Grandfathers (A Word of Caution: Don’t try this at Home–the Construction industry has built too many Jails and Prisons). It does express the futility of affecting Market conditions by ranting at the Government. We might be in a Economic epiphany where We finally recognize that Governments are worthless for Market Interventions; they only generating Inflation, and buying out the real culprits of the Situation before these extreme lobbyists lose any real Cash. The Concept of knowledgeable Investors might harvest low-hanging fruit.

The Chinese Olympic Games may be doomed to experience Rioting in the Streets, a horrible Prospect for a Country dedicated to expressing itself as a prosperous, growing leader of the World economy. China’s largest asset, an excess amount of trained labor, has turned into a Trojan Horse with the Price increases for Food and Energy. I expect that the July numbers, August numbers if delayed, will show a decline in actual Exports; not just a loss of Export growth. This would be a disaster, in the face of 7% Inflation. A less satirical Evaluation would state that economic conditions are becoming volatile, with loss of Profits and Income descending to the level of Labor and individual Households; always a dangerous territory leading to extreme reactions.

I agree with Alex Tabarrok and Dean Baker that We should allow the Short-Sellers free rein. The only flaw in their analysis lies in the fact that Short-Sellers only aggravate economic conditions, once an economic degeneration has started. Short-Sellers show relatively little foresight, and too often only Sell short when the declines have already started, when they should have started on the Uptick. Their practice, like the Government, tends only to worsen the economic losses to the Stocks involved. I personally vote for actual Closing of the Stock Exchanges, and moving them to the local Walmart, placing them beyond the Check-Out Counters; it might bring a greater Rationality to Stock movements. lgl

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