I find a little more to fear from this information from the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. The April swing may have been our Recovery, and if it levels out at the April level, We could find Ourselves with a steady level of manufacturing, which will not recover to pre-Recession levels. This means that the Downshift in the economy may be permanent; the economy having recovered as much ground as possible. Outcomes possible would be a permanent high Savings rate by Consumers, the lack of Imports will close World financial credit to Americans, many fewer Jobs for Americans, and inability to get Treasuries sold at Home or in the World. The robust nature of the April data is itself suspect, as everything indicates it is Business attempts to fill Orders, rather than any search for new markets.
Justin Fox comes up with a good discussion of the realm of regulation. Tried and true Warriors in the economic field are concerned by the huge variance from Expectations that the economy has taken with the Recession. Part of it lies in Accounting where under the Rules in force, a Borrower could borrow $15 Billion to spend $10 Billion ($5 Billion going to fund far-seeing leadership), Banks could issue some $20 Billion in unredeemable Paper to raise the funds, and Everyone think their Issuance should have a multipe A rating with many stars. The interesting Part of it all was that initial repayment conditions was only between the Borrower and initial Loan Officer, both of Whom expected to have other employment before the Payment Schedule came into force, and Everyone was concerned with shoving the liability off on Someone else. It was a fantastic game of ‘Musical Chairs’ with a difference; whoever wound up with the final Chair had to pay for the whole thing. Business, Bankers, Brokers, and Insurers all insisted that Consumers of the Product sold keep their seat.
Where do you set in relationship to your fellow Americans: Are you a good Consumer? Study the table, and ask yourself if you are consistent with other Americans. Felix Salmon feels that a Car and Landline are unnecessary, but he lives in an urban setting. I could live with a TV plus a DVD, without the deadly presence of Cable TV or Satellite. No one needs a Dishwasher–simply let the dishes pile up until it is time to wash Dishes; a good Rule is to keep no more flatware than it takes before the Smell takes hold. I need the Clothes Dryer, and the Internet Connection, and Doctors’ Appointments alone would insist I keep my vehicle. How I wish for Thoreau’s bravery, where I could sleep in Peace, and Horns and Whistles do not interrupt me. lgl
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