Lifespan and the Social Security Debate

Arnold Kling provides a very informative article on Lifespan and Social Security at: http://www.techcentralstation.com/011805B.html

His essential argument propounds that all current data collection on Lifespan and longevity vastly understates what actual Lifespans are likely to be encountered. Arnold cites the fact that Infant mortality has dropped, better Health Care has lowered the percentage Death rates in lower decades, and there is every indication that percentage Death rates are declining in the older decades of Life, from which We still have no data. The primary point of his article states that Health Care outcomes are much better in the United States compared to other nations, but not reflected in the current data collection; and secondly, that with the actual greater longevity, the Social Security Fund is more insecure than Most attribute. This Author would like to express deep appreciation for Arnold's excellent piece, before he introduces his own Counterpoint.

Arnold, himself, uses a data set which is constrained by current Data collection. This limits the parameters of his work while it negates none of it. One cannot factor new health hazards and their effect on Lifespan, especially Those which possess longterm ill-health effects--like Asbestos inhalation. No accurate Studies have been conducted of the effect of Population density on longevity. This physical density must create added physical stress on the human organism. The Author currently drinks Tapwater laced with Arsenic, until such time as my community gets a new Water plant built--We can obtain free Drinking water. This highlights the lack of Freshwater supplies; this necessitates use of reprocessed water with the increased longterm health hazard. New deadly vuruses and bacteria are being discovered every day--Many claim it coming from deforestation; not matter, as new and old health dangers are expressing greater immunity to traditional and new Designer medical drugs. Too many factor-dangers to Health exist to express confidence in current Health Care being able to maintain--let alone advance--the lifespan expectencies of Our current Year.

How should We evaluate the Data?

Health Care may produce more positive results in this Country, as compared to other Countries; but these positive results derive from far too high of Cost/Patient ratio, therefore Universal Health Care--Public subsidy or Private underwriting--cannot be obtained. This will have longterm consequence (adverse) on Life Expectency in the United States.

The Crisis in the Social Security Fund must be considered manufactured, until such time as Real Benefit reduction or Real Tax increase, must occur within a Forty-year timeframe--the normal Worklife for most Americans. The rationale here is the same argument which Arnold utilized in his article, namely that Productivity, Longevity, Tax revenues, and Savings ratios can only be estimated for future Labor and Business elements; We can only exterpolate from Data currently derived from Working assets. lgl