Tuesday, February 22, 2005

Social Security Realism

Proposals abound on how to fix the shortfall to the Social Security Fund. This Author has previously offered a number himself (previous Posts). The President's Proposal for Private Accounts does not even offer a fix:

1) It simply advances the date of the shortfall
2) Increases the total cost of the program to the American Taxpayers
3) Demands a huge payment from the General Revenue Budget now instead of in 2042
4) Private Accounts have small chance of providing SS Recipients with alternate Income for losses endured by reducing future benefits.
5) Simple passage of the President's Plan will undoubtedly incite a major devaluation of the Dollar, so American Workers will lose many more times than the 'Once Only'
6) No One advances Estimates on the total Tax revenues which will have to be raised, to pay off all Debt while maintaining Government Services. This Author estimates overall Taxes will need to be raised 8%, simply to service the Debt(without paying it off) with continued Government services by 2020--if the Dollar holds anything approaching current value.
7) Medicare and Medicaid remain the far greater danger than Social Security; the former programs will be in crisis before the President's SS Plan is even scheduled to start.
8) The Social Security program will not even attain a shortfall, if Life Expectency stalls or declines; this is not an unlikely event, as Medical services continue to price themselves out of reach of common Americans.
9) A devalued Dollar will not lead to expansion of American Exports, but will lead to sharp curtailment of American Imports. Readers might ask Why this is included here; a 30% decrease in Imports with corresponding American provision of Goods and Services will led to another 6 million American Workers being employed, and the proposed shortfall of Social Security disappears.
10) The current leadership of Our Government is somewhat economically dense; American Corporate Profits will decline 1.3% to every 1% devaluation in the Dollar(estimated before this Week's drop against the Euro and Yen) until Imports have declined by 21%, according to the Author's estimate. How does this Relate? Corporations will react by suppressing Wages or curtailing Employment; bringing down Tax revenues entered into the SS Fund.

Private Accounts lack economic sense in real terms: they will flood the Stock and Bond markets with excess Cash, such already overfueled by Tax credits and Investment plans with Cash; vastly reducing Dividend spread to Stock and Bond Holders. Dollar devaluation will actually increase real Unfunded Liabilities under the Social Security program--whether Wage or Price indexed. The Bush plan is specifically engineered to destabilize the Social Security program, but the cost of destabilization will be much higher than expected; as it will destabilize the entire economy. lgl

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