Getting my hands dirty

I do not know whether I agree with Political Calculations on the possibility of a Recession, as I have never reviewed their analysis methodology (I might not understand it anyway). Factory Orders rose less than expected: 2.1% in September. The PMI, or Global Factory index, fell to 53.9 in October from a previous 54.7. Jobless claims rose by 18,000 in the latest Week. I did hear from a Birdie in my ear that the ISM reading would have been 49.2 overall, with subtraction of the anomaly of Civilian aircraft Purchases and production. I do not know if this is true, but still believe We entered into a Contraction last month; this is still a long way from a Recession.

Dean Baker says that a cyclical downturn of Productivity is not the real Story, which is the economic growth of the last five years. Others think it is a Problem. I don’t with the understanding that the process is organic. Productivity levels off from two factors: the hiring of initially less-Skilled Workers, and the age of capital equipment determines the amount of Downtime and Maintenance time which must be utilized. A lot of this equipment has been at full Production over 24 months, and adjustment and correction delays can be expected.

Both Greg Mankiw and Arnold Kling remark on a Edlin/Mandic paper on the externalities of Accidents, Greg from the potential for Pigovian taxation, while Arnold simply wants people to stay off the road. I think my Personal Savings program by way of a Energy tax equal to Energy Cost serves better on both Counts, rather than a bureaucratically-defined percentage of Tax; doing this to the actual benefit of Consumers through a forced Savings rate. Sometimes, I think Economists need to spend some time in the real World. lgl