Sunday, May 13, 2007

It is all in what you Ask.

Daniel Altman conducted an informal Survey of Economists. His Survey Questions:

a. The tax cuts signed by President George W. Bush.
b. Pent-up demand following the recession, the corporate scandals and the invasion of Iraq.
c. Both (a) and (b) were important.
d. Neither (a) nor (b) was important; it was the regular business cycle.
e. There’s no way to tell now.

Altman reports only about 10% of respondent Economists said that the Bush Tax Cuts were responsible for the economic growth from mid-2003 through 2006. My Answer would have been ‘d’ with qualifications, because it was most definitely not the regular business cycle. A more pertinent set of Questions may have been a help. I will provide him with a Survey list which may provide greater Insight into the Issue at hand:

More Impressive Survey:
a) Was economic growth in this Period fueled by inflated Property values due to the Mortgage Tax credit, which incited Consumers to overspend on nonessentials?
b) Was the Fed Interest rates more impactive on Business rolling Capital, or on Consumer Credit extension without Credit references? Which was the most important for producing the economic growth?
c) Did Corporate leadership cut the fat from their structure, or artificially gut their Operations to maintain Dividend levels while selling their Stock Options and Stock Grants?
d) Were the Bush Tax Cuts effective, or did 80% of the lower Income groups find the level of Taxation simply switched to State and Local levels, and then only after an over-extension of personal Consumption practices? Did this have a major impact upon the economic growth of the Period?
e) Were all of the above a factor in the economic growth in question, or were none of them a factor, or even yet; define your own number of factors involved.

I am sure Daniel Altman should be the One to extend this Questionnaire, as he is a responsible member of the Journalist community. I am equally sure I would receive few answers, if I tried a like Survey. I do believe, though, that my Questionnaire might prove more enlightening if forwarded. lgl

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