Thursday, December 27, 2007

Do I sound like an old Farmer?

Tyler Cowen implies that Growth theory clearly expresses a degree of failure, when he forwards Charles Kenny’s closing argument. I have always held the suspicion that real Growth comes only with technological innovation, which impels development of a new industrial sector, or radical change in an older sector. The rest I term ‘Paper Booms’ which is a nonsensical name for financial marketing efforts for the purpose of absorbing Profits derived from previously successful economic sectors. Most Economists would assert this does not apply to fundamental economic growth theory, where the focus is most generally on development of poor Countries. The fact exists that Developed nations show little interest in developing economic resources in Undeveloped nations when the economies of Developed nations are generating only mediocre Profits, and then only in pursuit of material resources under the influence of a Paper Boom. The key element, here, is that real interest in Development policies ends where the Profits of a Paper Boom disappear, which will always happen without technological invention propelling all economies.

The next relevant Question would be why the Profits of a Paper Boom always disappear. These Profits are basically only marginal excess Profits of the Technological Boom, which are limited in size once the market for the Technological innovation has been fully exploited; this is the source of Investment for the Paper Boom, and cannot be exploited from Undeveloped economies because of the lack of financial capital to provide the technological Profits–the original source of Investment in Growth development. The Reader must understand that the economy stands upon a foundation of Production–whether physical Good or some form of labor Service. Paper Booms are based upon provision of Imaginary Goods, which in some way leech off the Profits of Production in some manner; personnel needs for Employment ensuring this creation of Imaginary Goods will always exceed the real Profits to be drained. This later fact brings forth the loss of momentum known as Recession, as the drain of Profits from the Production process actually retards the Production.

Almost all Economists would have difficulty with the Above argument, but almost Everyone can accept the prime basis for Recession remains too many hogs at the Feed trough. The hogs of Imaginary Goods chew the same feed as the hogs of Technological Growth, and eat too much feed that is needed to keep the hogs of Tech Growth well-fed and maintaining their weight. The worst aspect of this Process lay in the inability to identify the hogs effectively; the Must-Feed hogs cannot be realistically separated from the unnecessary hogs. lgl

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