To Hell in a Handbasket!

Are We really so much smarter than our Ancestors? Everyone likes the Thought that the World is getting better, and that the threat to our racial existence has been lessened, if not eradicated. It is less frightening to the Mind in the belief that our Ancestors had less to lose in the first place, and that the underlying causation for the downfall of Civilizations has been suppressed by the superior knowledge of Ourselves. Historical studies, though, continue to cast doubt on those assertions, finding highly advanced systems of Manufacture and Trade in the long-ago Past, and modern Sociological studies find that rates of literacy are easily lost by modern forms of Insurgency and Warfare; it seems easier and cheaper to train Barbarians than Students. The former group also seems more capable in training succeeding generations in their Craft, than the later group expresses capacity to replace their own generation. Some may think I am making a Joke at the expense of my educated Peers, but try building some Probability Sequence models.

Felix may be wrong on this One, as the Educated have been threatened by the Mortgage and Financial Crises. People are taking time from their busy schedules to attempt to understand what is happening to them, a practice much aided if you have already been downsized from a good position, and are awaiting the next opportunity. It might not have so much to do with improved talent through competition, as it is a more impatient hope for Salvation. Real admission of the Losses endured may be an enlightening help, something which Those involved in the specialized markets already know, and all Educated are coming to understand. Comparison could possibly remove what complacency remains. The current Crises have cost about three times as much as the S&L bailout of the 1980s, and threatens to cost up to 10 times as much if Anyone does anything real stupid. The present position can even be written off as normal business losses, with Recovery as accomplishable as the S&L bailout–it is a simple question of the magnitudes of GDP. It is another complete Story if these Markets unravel; I will simply state you don’t want to hear the rest of the Story! (By the way, my estimates are considered extreme by most financial authorities; of course, they brought you these Crises in the first place.)

I will be criticized for not knowing this stuff, and therefore, Readers should lack confidence in the above assessments. Here I am only trying to adopt John Kay’s advise, and use Common Sense, rather than risk models which accept inadequate assumptions as correlations. I, myself, would like to get an advanced view of Basil XXVII; will it include God’s arrival on the earth, and the Day of Judgement? In the absences of advance Rushes, I will continue to utilize Basil only as a garnish. lgl