I promised myself I would not do this!

There are some men who are very brave, as this Post will amplify. I agree with 1&2, believe the next Dip will be because of fiscal mismanagement, and believe We have already settled into that long-range lower economic growth rate; perhaps even a slight decline in Production as the Baby Boomers retire from the Production cycle. I have a touch more confidence than Tyler, which undoubtedly means only that I am more of a Fool. The real Problem with Prediction comes from the fact that previous economic forces rested upon a basic fraud, and upwards of 20% of the reported Production was based upon ‘Blue Sky’; and working off such numbers as Origin will always be difficult. I applaud Tyler for his honesty, and feel eternally grateful that human kind never remembers predictions in the first place.

Now comes the hard part where I must place myself in the matrix of Gordon, Shilling, Grantham, and Schiff from the source article. Gordon believes there is an economic God, while Schiff knows there is only the Devil; Shilling, Grantham, and I all believe in God, but that he simply ignores all of Us. All things examined, I expect you will make the most Money by going with Shilling. You have to understand that only Gordon believes in economic miracles, though We have all watched American markets for at least 30 years. I will only state my willingness to be an Apostate, quite unwilling to join Schiff’s father in prison; or even other forms of duress. I remember the old Story about the Mule Trader who was asked if he would buy a particular mule. The Trader said Yes, if the Seller could provide the Ownership papers on the animal. The Seller looked in amazement at the Trader, stating, ‘Boy, you really do want to get out of the Business.’

Robert Shiller may not understand that the element he defines can spread across other economic decisions made. The most important may be Business Start-Ups, which is a major Job generator. Such Decision-making process may have already destroyed the Car companies, and Commercial building shows the same-type erosion. It is not a pleasant time to be in American Production, and many Americans are looking for Employment within areas least affected by market conditions, though these Jobs may pay substantially less both immediately and over the long-run. The entire Scenario leaves One a little cold, without Expectation of warm winter clothing anytime soon. lgl