Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Economic News

Productivity increases only by 1.6% in 2006, while Labor Costs rose by 6.6%; drat, it be those horrid Worker Demands again. Wait! Why does this article not provide numbers on Labor Cost increases minus Management compensation? It seems like a logical thing to do, as Management is not really part of Labor. An outmoded Author, let alone concepts of Economist and Accountant, has me scratching on paper with all mistaken elements of arithmetic. I somehow come up with a number less than Zero with Management left out. It must be that Management suddenly found need for more Management personnel! Oops, somehow I came up with a negative number and Shrinkage again. Maybe I can find Someone who reports on the exact percentage of Management compensation gain, so I am not left in the Dark with my poor Math skills.

Here is another indication that many individuals in the Mining industry wants to stay in the Management cycle, rather than take a simple Buyout. The Majors want to buy out the Minors, to get to the Reserves which they have found, now that the entire Market for mined products has increased by about 25%. The trouble to the Majors comes from the low Prices they want to give to the Minors, who do not want to sell. The Majors could also think about extending Management compensation packages in their organization to these Minors; a practice enjoying heavy advantage in the Tech industry. Why does Everyone seem to want a piece of Management; at least, of their Compensation packages?

The ISM indexes showed real slippage, but the numbers are all above 50, the breakeven point for economic growth. The trouble here lies in the almost 5 point drop in the Services index, not a sure sign that Employment numbers will be bad, but the numbers Friday will tell the Tale. I would lay odds on an 18,000 increase on First Filers; this Guess solidified by a 0.6% drop in the new orders index. I don’t think in terms of any Recession soon, based upon the new Household Startups, but I expect a Pause in Consumer Purchase expansion. lgl

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