The Future as I see it

Chris Dillow presents a really good Post with valuable links. It is basically a criticism of economic dedication to GDP data. It is especially timely because of the fact GDP will begin to decline sometime within the next two decades: it being a combination of more expensive Resources, a lack of specific Skilled labor, and an overall shrinking Population. Most Economists would disagree with this assessment, but there is a wide range of negative externalities which they do not consider. The greater expense of Resource Mining comes from the greater difficulty of Mining, which will not only require greater Capitalization, but also greater numbers of Workers devoted to Mining; I predict the Mining sector will triple its Labor force in the next 20 years. Skilled Labor will be in short supply unless and until the cost of Training is reduced; estimate We will have a 5% shortage per Graduation Year–additive over a 45 Year duration. The Population will shrink, but not necessarily decrease the draft upon Resources; based upon the Ageing of the Population, and the resultant greater Investment in it. I possess some doubt of Dillow’s belief in a Coasean world, though, knowing the impossibility of the organization of External Costs into a functional program for negotiation.

Hal Varian, Ramey, and Francis finds leisure time has not changed since the days of Keynes, who mentioned that People would have to find ways to expend their leisure time in the future. It was not one of his primary theses, though, and All missed reading my previous paragraph. The real fact exists that People have found the manner to consume their leisure time, basically in Women going to work in the Marketplace, and confining Child Care to their leisure time. Most Parents spend at least 2 hours a day getting their children to and from Day Care. Parent-Teacher meetings have gone up about 2000% in Time consumed in the last 70 years, and Child-oriented Sports events consume about an additional 7 hours per Week in duration or Travel time. Housecleaning is transferred to Prime-time leisure hours due to the Wife working, and attendance at listed Sports events etc., has been reconstituted as compulsory through issuance of Season Ticket and prohibitive Price. I think it is too early to call Keynes wrong.

Sarah Hamersma disliked the burden of Minimum Wage upon small Business, and claims the Earned Income Tax Credit is the better deal. This Proposition carries the hidden connotation, though very much a real sentiment, of suppressing the Cost to Customers of small businesses; i.e., insuring the Cost of Small Business enterprise does not increase at a comparative rate with the general Inflation of the greater economy, for the specific economic advantage of Those utilizing small business services. This sounds good, but effectively small Business must face the greater economy in all other aspects of Production Costs; this compelling outsize Price increases at lengthened periods (a Step-level of artificially-high Jerks). The Earned Income Tax Credit suffers from a low Participation rate (expected from less-educated Labor who fail to realize the existence of such a Credit), and a Business management which does not want to be bothered by the administrative cost of such a Credit. The Minimum Wage at least reaches the affected Workers. lgl