Sunday, August 19, 2007

Not really my Forte

Andrew Samwick finds an article in Science magazine calling for two programs which I have known for some time: reforestation, and switching biofuel production to prairie grasses. Ethanol production from Corn is too resource-intensive to be efficient; it requiring .60 of an inch of Water per day for the growth of Corn as currently planted. Current Irrigation methods can put about 2 inches of Water on the land per rotation, so that without Rain, the entirety must be watered twice a Week in excess of a month. Please remember I have not been engaged in Farming in over thirty years, so my numbers will be highly Contestable, never do anything from ancient Memory if it can be helped!

Agricultural land must be covered at least Four times in any growing cycle: Working the ground for Planting, Planting, Cultivation, and Harvesting; notice We have not even discussed Irrigation at this Point. I have not attained recent information from either Farmers or Implement dealers, but hope they have kept Fuel usage to 3 gallons per hour, but it could be easily be more than triple that figure. Modern machinery can hopefully cover 80 acres per hour, though 60 per hour seems a trifle more realistic. Irrigation Walker systems possibly use about 12 gallons of fuel per hour (We are talking massive Resistence of Movement of extremely bulky machine systems). A Walker rotation requires about 10-12 hours to cover an entire Section of Land with a 2-inch Water dispersion. Does there seem to be a lot of Kentucky Windage in this, a primary reason why Economists stay away from such discussion.

Here I will get even further off the Mark: I suggest One can derive about 2 gallons of Ethanol from a bushel of Corn, though I might be full of it (it is terrible considering that I have a Nephew in charge of New Development at an ethanol Corn Plant). Farmers currently claim they are growing about 200 bushels of Corn per acre, though my own experience suggests a more realistic amount of 140 bushels per acre (Farmers tend to pick the best acre they have ever produced in their career). Notice how I keep switching between acres, Sections, Gallons, and Hours in the discussion–I am not a stupid man, and do not want to appear foolish! Someone who wants a simplified Answer could possibly say that a Section of land requires 40 hours of Machine coverage, and about 60 hours of Irrigation per Growth cycle. This might translate into about 150 gallons of fuel for tillage, and 800 gallons for Irrigation, plus or minus about 400 gallons of fuel; remember We are talking only one Section of land here. (Now you know why they told me not to quit my Day Job).

I could go on this way for hours, but should keep this Short. My own estimate is that an acre of forest can sequester the Carbon extruded from about 70 gallons of Carbon fuels yearly. Prairie grasses are perennial, would require a Machine Cost only for the Harvesting (itself much faster than normal Farming tillage), can subsist without Irrigation or Fertilization (forgot about that one, which require about the same fuel Cost as Cultivation) saving the aquifers and the Carbon Cost of the fertilizer, and produce about 60% of the Ethanol as Corn. So ends this Class of Agriculture for Dummies (no insult to any Reader). lgl

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