Wednesday, February 13, 2008

What is Wrong

Boutique creations and looking for sure political polling at Intrade. Does there seem to be a form of schizophrenia within the American fabric? We prefer to buy Tap water at $1/glass, rather than bottled water at a probable $2/bottle, and appear to be ‘sheik’ in the decision. We want the ‘bragging rights’ to honestly claiming We have won a bet on Intrade, only for a potential loss of $10. Is this how modern fortunes are made, by finding captivating methods to intrigue the American psyche? Could this mean that We must invest the American Public with Toys to play with?

I have a friend who has made a fortune from Wheat recently. How did he do it? By the same mechanism he has used for thirty years–simple farming. The Answer can be asked: When did Markets develop too much volatility to effectively distribute Product? The Culprit might be the overpopulation of the World, but this is a condition which has been with Us for decades. I think the real onus belongs to the Hedge traders, who altered Speculation into a institutional framework. Speculation left the realm of Betting, and entered the arena of automatic Buying and Selling, based upon mathematical models. The Hedge traders planned on making their fortunes by automatic manipulation of the Markets, but it got out of hand, and Windfall Profits have drifted to lucky Players based solely upon Position, and costs Everyone including the Hedge Traders. We may have to design Market structures eventually to limit such forms of mechanical Trading.

Here is an article designed to produce exactly the Result desired. The Fed has published a survey which says Economists believe there is a 47% chance there will be a Recession. Okay, fine! Business personnel read the article, and potentially change their Purchase policies to batten down their houses for a recession. What happens to the 53% Chance that there will not be a Recession? Economists, and especially the Fed, should change their Tune since the Stimulus package has already been passed; a Package which I believe has only value in inflationary pressure. I wish some responsible organizations were more responsible in their distribution of information. lgl

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