Sunday, February 17, 2008

Will the real Correlation please Stand-Up

Correlations, Anyone? Impactual relationships being Variables has become the modern Fad of Economics. James Joyner would state that many of the Relationships are tenuous at best, and designed to be politically misleading. I will agree with that sentiment. I would like Someone to find a significant correlation sometime, like the evaluative data between Price Controls and Alternative Resource use. This would give me some relevant data for a posit I am trying to entertain, on whether some degree of Price Controls on the price of Beef Products in this Country could actually increase the literal size of beef herds. My Concept states that the lack of alternate land use would engender an increase in the herds through the advent of Price Controls, the potential damage existing in the ease of exit of Beef Producers from the industry. Would relevant beef Price Controls lead to the adoption of a reduced Profit per Unit with expanded beef herds, or would it only provide rapid leave-taking of beef Producers from the industry? Such a Correlation must be known before it is even worth the effort to design a Price suppression program.

Tyler Cowen presents a good Opinion piece, but it is just an exercise in common assumptions held by most of the educated elites. Here is another place where it could be helpful to find existent Correlations between expressed policy of Candidates, and their eventual Record in fulfilling those campaign initiatives. Another comparison of value would be Electee response to countervailing Special Interest demands to cancel the impact of those campaign promises. One could stipulate that Numbers have the power to connect Policy to Reality, if Statisticians would dedicate themselves similar to the expressed dedication of the Journalists; though the later has shown little real interest in defining the Truth.

Like most elements on the Internet, I find this Post by Henry at Crooked Timber which highlights my sentiment towards revealed preferences. Correlations revealed are often very weak, if existent at all, and the Internet should somehow achieve a Rating system to present the Readers with the estimate of the equivalent value of the material. Now I know many Readers would say I am advocating throwing myself off the Internet, but even Newspapers and Periodicals possess some form of Content editing. It may be time for the Internet to grow up, and establish some Evaluative system. I would favor a channel box, where every Post could be rated by each Reader on a scale of 1 through 10, with the Average updated with each Rating. Please–no throwing of Garbage, I already have enough around the Place. lgl

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