Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Intellectual Dishonesty in varied forms

Could there be industrial sabotage? Melamine is not that easy to get into the Food chain. It must be deliberately added to any Product, or else come already mixed in Feed while unlabeled. Its presence in Eggs means it must come in the Feed, especially when the Records of the Egg Producers show no violations. People will say I am paranoid, but Feed Producers are well aware of the hazards of Melamine since the baby formula scandal. Its reintroduction into other Feed lines would not come from any Producer whose livelihood is dependent upon his Feed sales; and who knows that the Food chain will eventually be traced. Somewhere some Competitor is attempting to boost his own Sales by ruination of the Chinese agricultural reputation. Chinese Feed lines need to check their Employees as well as their industrial mixes. Treason can be bought cheaply!

All Investors should read this article, even though I go along with Warren Buffet and John Bogle. I too believe in the P/E ratios in Investment, and anything at less than 12/1 is a basic Buy at any time, if the basic format of Corporate operation is not shook up. This gives One approximately a 80% chance that the P/E will be 16/1 within 3 years; a sound Investment policy if consistently used. The Codicil, here, is that the losers have to be kept until Corporate management improves, or the loss must be taken. A Statement should also be made that Investment advise do not have the innate association with your Money which you possess, and their error will not mean as much to themselves, as it will to you.

I include this article because Economic Thought has a Shotgun pattern, as Tim Harford does express cogently, without many sour grapes. Purists acclaim that there should not be a Nobel Prize in Economics. A probable majority of Nobel Prize Winners would disagree with the Prize Commission in the Selection of about half of the Winners; that is, if God told them that they had to tell the Truth. A probable Fifth of the Winners still wonder at the Timing of the Award, thinking they were a Dark Horse choice to avoid economic discord in the Profession; thinking honestly that the impact of their contribution had long been over. The most humorous aspect of the Award system is the reality that the Award is never given to any Economist who perchance needed the Money, or actually use it to further Research into Economics. lgl

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