I tend to discount Mike Shedlock’s approach sometimes because it sounds a little more dire than warranted, but this account is truly sad. (Roubini never had it so good!) I am trying to remember an old Report on budgetary channeling from the Dark Ages of the 1970s, as I spout the drivel which might have changed with the advent of Credit Cards with serious balances; this stating that Christmas Shoppers never begin to budget seriously for the Christmas Season until October. We might be getting Unemployment at exactly the wrong moment in history. The mortgage foreclosure rate and the decline of labor hours may join with the above information to suggest the largest buying segment of the Christmas Shoppers may be short a significant number of people. Mortgage holders traditionally are well-adjusted Tw0-Income families with young children, the Shopper who has the most to buy with the heaviest Mark-Ups. Card-Holders have been paying down their balances throughout the Recovery, but is it enough to produce effective Christmas budgets?
Catherine Rampell also notes the growth of Job Seekers, but from another venue. The interesting fact here may be that the Hire rate for Professionals and Business personnel is much slower and analytical than for Construction Workers. Construction foremen find Job Skill levels much easier to track, as they only need to know what previous Job sites the Workers have worked to understand the viable capability of the Worker. Professional and Business want to pick the exact composite which is right for their business model, and truly interview the Job Seeker. Both methods are effective for the sectors involved, but it does make a difference to our model. Construction labor with likely be receiving Income at the end of October, over labor undertook in the early part of October. Professional and Business Job Seekers will likely start getting their first Paycheck somewhere in late November. Economists will tell you this stands as too late to save the Christmas Season for these new Job Holders.
The information can be considered so dire to the point that I would include this link. My entrance on discussion of this Post must be the Cost of a Retraining program to eliminate or forestall the destructive criteria of Obsolete. What does this Retraining Cost do to the natural investment for Retirement? What does the use of Retirement funds for Retraining do for that Retirement fund? Is the fundamental Cost of Education cancelling the real value of Education, under a Business model and program sheering Labor at immediate sign of Profit weakness? Could this not be the real problem which Government policy should concentrate upon? lgl