Economic Movement

Here is the Real GDP Forecast of the National Association of Business Economics. The NABE sees a growth rate of 2.8% in 2007, and 3.1% in 2008. Can I believe this? Afraid not. My Instincts (thoroughly non-scientific and uneconomic) impel me to suggest a slightly less than a 2% growth rate for 2007, and a breakeven hold for 2008. Does this mean I think Hard Times are coming? No, my belief may be termed that negative externalities will drag down the growth rate in both years, and composite impacts will limit GDP growth thereafter. The negative externalities will consist of sustained Oil prices, Homeland Security will seriously begin to curtail cheap labor, the Housing Market will continue its decline (until the adverse impact of Inflation because of the Mortgage Tax Credit is neutralized), and the decline of Federal Defense Spending will cut the immediate growth rate. The composite impacts will be the longer provision period to get Oil necessitating larger and more expensive Stockpiles, the lack of replacement of Baby Boomers in the Employment rolls alongside reductions in Immigration, and the increasing Cost of materials.

Here is a Paper which could make a real contribution to Educators, if the thesis is found to be sound. I believe it is! One of the greatest Problems of the future Economies of the World will be to get the correct Workers in the right Positions. We face Worldwide curtailment of Labor resources in the years ahead, and suffer from excessive Educational Costs now; this amid an technological environment requiring ever-increasing Skill levels. We cannot afford misallocation of Labor forces in this Scenario. Most Educators deny the value of Job Counseling at the levels of Junior High, but I have always thought highly of the Japanese Educational system with its high degree of pre-destination. I only know We must start to centrally coordinate a Skills-oriented Job placement system, and provide the opportunity for Students to achieve such Goals.

Alex Tabarrock points to an Abstract of a Article by Russo, Carlson, and Meloy which defines how people can be induced to choose an inferior product over superior products. This first highlights the need for Government agency to supervise ‘Truth in Advertising’. The Issue must be expanded though, as We face higher Production Costs and expanded Resource reclamation efforts. Here is where inferior production present economic costs to the greater economy. I begin to feel like a Conservative Communist saying there should be a Government agency enabled to buy out inferior production facilities, and further granted a Mandate to exclude specific Product lines from Importation due to Product inferiority. lgl