Wave of the Future

Louis Uchitelle presents a gloss article in the NYTimes about Job Security. American Economists have avoided examination of Job Insecurity within the Economy. They enjoy the Scenario of a dynamic Economy, and add only those numbers which show a growing Economy. They would not wish to find connection betwixt Job Insecurity and loss of the Savings rate. They do not like to contemplate that the Participation rate in 401(k) programs is dropping, and contributions to such programs is falling; and never would they appreciate Anyone connecting this data to Job Insecurity. They ignore that high-Skill Jobs increasingly acquire high-level Degrees, which are becoming increasingly expensive and longer to attain. They choose to ignore the data which states that lower-Skill Jobs are falling both in terms of Salary levels and Entrance levels. The moderation of Immigration levels have escaped Economists entirely, who avoid like the Plague, any contemplation of a Shrinking, and Ageing, Labor Force. Can the Ivory Towers withstand the Winds of Change?

Some Realistic evaluation of the Economy. First, the Economy will begin to shrink through natural economic forces sometime before 2020; due to the aforementioned Shrinking and Ageing Labor Force, not supplemented by a Immigration who finds more opportunity at native home. Business will enter the realm of Labor Retention at that point, thinking to keep Employees happy, so they will stay in their Jobs longer, and maintain relatively high levels of Productivity. The average Age of Retirement will be 75 by 2020, if Business can induce it. Replacement of Retirement with ‘Working until you Drop’ will require high Wages, short Workweeks, lengthy Vacation times, and full-Route Medical benefits. Times They are Achanging!

One of the great alterations of the future Economy will be utilization of Resources. This World has to dig deeper and farther for the amounts of Resources, facing an ever-increasing Demand for those Resources. Reclamation of Product will become the Watchword of the Day, and much of the future Labor Force must be dedicated to the practice of Reclamation. Much Labor Force participation must be devoted to alternate Energy generation. We are already witnessing the shift to Service industries, and will soon be witness to the shift into Reclamation and Reuse. Longevity of Product life will replace high Sales volumes, and native Production will replace Trade as the important segment of the Economy. All of This will be accomplished inside a Shrinking Economy in numeral terms, but One with a much higher Labor Participation rate.

A Kid once asked me if I actually believed the Above. I replied simply, "Do you want to live?" Economists have a tendency to believe that the Status Quo is permanent, a fallacy enjoyed by Many throughout the human race. Capitalism will survive, if it can recognize the real Needs of the human condition. Resources may not even grow scarcer, but they will become more expensive to obtain. Massive transportation of Goods requires too much Fuel, even if it can still be obtained; simply because of the Cost of that Fuel. Short Product Life will impel major economic Costs because of Reclamation; suddenly, Production for the Common Man will be searching for high Quality. There will still be an arena for Profits, though the Margin per Item will be less, so Business will require horizontal spread of Production to supply a wide range of superior Products to a shrinking Consumer market. The Bush Presidency will probably be last of the Robber Barons seeking ‘Get Rich Quick’ Profits, at the expense of long-term viable economic integration. lgl