My Own Estimates

Because of the Political climate in the Capital and the Country, I here do state all data is of my own device unless otherwise indicated, and I bear total responsibility for all Statements.

Minzie Chinn presents this excellent article on real War Costs and DoD Spending. What are the worst problems with the current matrix of Defense Spending? There is still high attrition in Junior Officers and NCO cadres, and few funds being devoted to expansion and Training of Replacements. Human material can get worn out as well as weaponry and Transport. Few in the Build-Up will have the Time in Service equivalent to the sustainable responsibility of their Rank; this fact will cause greater Casualties, and even less competent treatment of those Casualties. Translating this material to military economics; the Casualty rate will likely be 9% higher, Mission accomplishment levels some 14% less, Equipment losses (both to enemy action and maintenance failures) will be 7-8% higher, and ammunition expenditure some 21% greater. Youth and inexperience can be hazardous on the battleground (American-induced Iraqi casualties will likely increase by 20-30%). You will likely not find this in the Bush Budget, which I have not read.

Minzie Chinn states the FY2009 projected Budget at $50 bn for Iraq and Afghanistan is consistent with American Withdrawal. The $50 billion equates basically only for Transport to clear the Countries involved of Troops and Weapons of American manufacture. American support of Iraqi and Afghani military and Police forces, in the absence of American Air Power, will require Two years of rigorous Training with in excess of $10 billion of effective weaponry and material. Civil Unrest and Violent Incidents are increasing in Iraq, and Taliban military forces are rearmed and trained in Afghanistan. Marked Improvement in Iraqi and Afghani military and Polices forces must be achieved within the Short-term for such to match the Sect militias and Taliban. Current American Training practice will not provision these forces sufficiently to replace American Troops within the remaining term of George W. Bush.

Real assessments indicate that Insurgent Incidents must decrease by at least 80% through this Year in order for Iraq to avoid Civil War. The Taliban will mount a new Offensive, and it will require at least one Division of American troops to suppress it. Al Quada, the Taliban, and the Sect militias will all use neighborhood assassinations to maintain turmoil in these societies, and as source for funding, weapons storage, and Information-gathering. Native support of American and Government policy carries a Sentence of Death inside their native communities. Pakistan cannot control the Hill tribes, who continue to support the al Quada and the Taliban. The military situation in both Iraq and Afghanistan requires a military offensive in each country, mainly manned by a American troops force of 100,000 in Iraq, 30,000 in Afghanistan. The Former would cost approx. $230 bn before it realized its Objectives, while the later would require about $60 bn before it accomplished its Objectives. Neither could be concluded within the framework of the Bush Presidency. The proposed Troop surge will only provide more American Targets on site. It is really time to discuss Withdrawal. lgl