Monday, June 30, 2008

The New Brand of Wealth Aggregation

Income inequality has been registered by many more people than Piketty and Saez; they simply organized a better documentation. The interesting element I find in the total debate lay in the huge resistence found in the extremely Wealthy to paying any more in absolute terms in Tax, though their Incomes have increased greatly in terms of multiples. Back when high Incomes Earners for considered to have made a couple hundred Thousand, these Earners wanted to pay only a few Thousand in Tax. Now that their Incomes is in Tens of Millions, they still think they should Pay less than $100k. There is no only a adamant Opposition to Progressive taxation; there exists a real Demand for a limitation of Taxation in absolute Terms. The One-Percenters were probably the First to surrender the ‘Trickle-Down’ hypothesis.

James Surowiecki brings forth a lucid defense of Oil Speculators which I am quite sure is based upon sound data. He expresses great Presence of Mind, and real Understanding of the Oil Pricing mechanism. How can a poor Man from Nebraska challenge such a great article? The only Option open seems to be hazarding a few Guesses on the progress of the Oil Market, which I understand will quickly be countered and overturned by competent Statisticians; I only can hope they will challenge on my Comments section. Here are the Guesses which I know will carry such Controversy:

1) There is a probable Multiple of 8 times the Speculator Cash in the Oil Market, as when Oil cost about $80/barrel.
2) Oil Production has increased by about 14% since Oil was $80/barrel, though actual Consumption has increased only about 11% in the like Interval. I disagree with several noted Economists in this Estimate, who seem to claim that Oil storage capacity has not increased.
3) Government policies and Sovereign Wealth funds have contractual agreements which have reduced free Tradable Oil by 60% since Oil was trading at $80/barrel.
4) Another Year as contractive as this Year on the World level, especially with expected Food shortages, will leave Oil Consumption at the same level as was existent when Oil was $80/barrel. It is doubtful that We will see Oil selling for less than $120/barrel under any Conditions in the future.

I am quite sure of my Expectations, even though my Numbers may be very loose. Only Time will tell; Readers, though, should be prepared. lgl

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