Tim Harford can give One a prospective of the current Downtime. Everyone knows of the occurrence of a Recession, though Most only get prepared to endure hardship in paying their mostly unchanged Monthly bills. I was once asked what a Recession consisted of: I thought for a moment, then said it was a nebulous economic circumstance where Communication companies freeze their billing Prices for a year or more. I have since been forced to alter my definition since, as the Communication industry has found Price reductions or suppressions does little to halt Cancellations. I now tentatively suggest Recessions are a Condition where Routing schedules can be delayed 96 hours without fear, due to the lack of compression at the delivery site. This highlights the fact that Recessions are in the eye of the Enduring. It is surprising how many successful businesses have started in the tail of a Recession; Success seemingly generated by the revised business format.
Calculated Risk itself attempts to quantify a Recession, based upon empty Office space. The trouble with the Graph lies in its inability of its forecast to predict the modular temporary increase under Crisis conditions, where Conditions seem to get better for a short Period before a continued descent. This consists of the Period of continued business reorganizations in which the lost Clientele is expected to be recaptured; the businesses not recognizing that this Clientele has altered in nature: currently lacking in size, magnitude, or market share. The recognition of development of a brand new Clientele will again incite a Downsize effort with reduced Headquarters. The depth of this second dip is the real indication of the severity of the Recession.
A lot of People attempt to explain when it is the best time to buy Stocks. I hear that a lot! What amuses me is the fact that I get asked for my formula often, and then by Those who occupy Positions which are supposed to express expertise in Investments. After all of this discussion and commentary, no one can give definitive expectation of how the markets will open on Monday. I once mentioned after Madoff that a Ponzi scheme was solely in the eye of the law enforcement officers; Everyone else had to wait to see if the business format made Money, or not. I had a Mother, plus additional Aunts and Grandmothers, who claimed my Morals were too loose; of course, I have never seen some Bill Gates or Warren Buffet charged with truly scandalous financial scheming. It seems that Profitability has something to do with the equation. lgl