Saturday, February 14, 2009

Old Man River--Just keeps rolling along

I have long tried to put a Pricetag on St. Valentine’s Day, though the women get somewhat dangerous when you mention the Expense. You cannot put a price on Love, not if you want to continue. Here has got to be the most expensive Valentine Present ever conceived; I think it was fob for the men, so they would think they could afford a special Christmas for women alone. Anyway, if they maintain the rate of expenditure capsuled within 18 months; it will be the greatest Inflationary pressure ever designed–like they could not limit themselves to spending say $10 billion/month to replace a financially dry financial sector. A lot of Economists–even some very good ones–approve of this splash award, though I wonder at the efficacy of bidding up a limited supply of Product in a rapid market move; remember, I listened yesterday to one Cable News outlet discussing $300/barrel Oil again, though they discussed this in a far off Period–like the proposed completion of the Stimulus.

Consumer confidence seems to have hit a new low, as indicated by the University of Michigan index. The Federal Reserve came out with a forecast survey expecting a 5.2% decline in the first Quarter. I, on the other hand, do not feel threatened by anything but the Stimulus bill. Consumers are paying off a major portion of their Consumer Credit while Most continue to retain their Employment. The Housing sector has tanked, and will get worse; it, though, is predictable with Contractors already adjusted for the expected decline. Retailers can expect a flat year even with the Stimulus, but nothing seems to indicate that anything will get much worse. I might be the Pied Piper, but maybe the economy will blow up a nice melody if the Stimulus does not balloon Wholesale prices.

I would advise my Readers to glance at this article, though I do not want to present much insight as to my Thoughts. I did enjoy the commentary that individual choices are often imperfect; a reflection that individual choices brought Us the Stock and Real Estate investment witnessed in the last few years. Some 70% of individuals adopt an optimistic attitude based upon the fact that the alternatives are unpalatable. The rest are ‘Gloom and Doom’ creatures such as myself, who are surprised that only about 40% of their dire predictions prove true! In no case does Anyone scope their Retirement funding around the concept of making a 4% annual Return on their Retirement Accounts. Maybe We do need a professional Keeper. lgl

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