Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Hazards of the Modern Day

I would seriously advise Readers to absorb this article carefully. Economic models, more than anything else, explain Past behavior in Markets and the Economy. Economies are never identical to previous eras, because of expansion and growth. One has to go back to the relevant Size to match likely characteristics, else there is a tremendous input of unknown variables. Modern Economic Man does not react in the same manner as their forebears, even themselves in earlier times. The major element is always the design of new methods to handle the increased volume, and the inexperience of All with the new instruments of concentration. The only rationality in the new way of doing business is to admit no one knows exactly what they are doing. These methods are similar to previous methods only in the surety that they do not encompass universal application, and will fail eventually when adversely stressed. The addition of the presence of Greed ensured that even viable systems are stressed to withdraw as many Profits as possible from an untested vehicle. One should not be surprised that economic models failed, only that they held up under pressure for as long as they did.

Paul Krugman fears that the United States might go Irish. I have always been culturally addicted to austerity in the first place, so do not feel the implicit threat which Paul fears. His confidence that the World supports our huge debt may be seriously misplaced, as even China is beginning to grumble about reasonable performance. I feel that the worst fear for Americans would be rapid abandonment by the World, both in Product and in finance. The real Solution at almost every level might be a Cut to Consumption, which is Death to Full Employment and rising Wages. What really bothers me must be the fact that We would be in much better shape today, if the last Round of Stimulus–the Bush Tax Cuts–had not been passed. There is still Time to revamp the Tax Code before We are back to an agrarian economy (no disaster greater exists than a ‘Back to the Land’ philosophy).

There is a relative persecution of Names and Labels in the World, and People cannot state their own beliefs because of fear some trigger might be touched, unleashing an automatic rant against some Label. Everyone in the academic community has noticed the growth of this effect, and do a good Job of avoiding Tripwires, but what does it say for Freedom of Expression? There was once a time when an old Anarchist like myself was applauded in elite Salons. No, We have to continuously listen to canned Reviews spouted by Any inoculated with the Venom. It is a medium of Suppression, and One which does not serve Us when serious Questions must be discussed. lgl

No comments: