Friday, May 07, 2010

Real World Estimates

There are some people you should really take a class under, and Sanjoy Mahajan would seem to be one of those Instructors. General estimates are actually important in every occupation, and an absolute Must in Corporate management. No Executive can be able to attain expertise in more than one or two areas, and the probable arena in which every Executive works means delving into 7-8 areas every day. He must rely on the expectation of specialized personnel, but he must also have some methodology to test for accuracy of the material presented to him (Specialists have the tendency to follow monolinear lines of ideology). There is the old adage of getting out of the lab, and entering the real world. Estimation is a technique which requires practice to center on accuracy, and people in the real world have to make Judgements based upon these estimates. It is much akin to a baseball game, altered to where Home Runs are not Points, they are simply Foul Balls. The game must be won, but can only be done by placing the Hits in the areas of the Park where Opponent players express weakness. It does make for a tougher game, and one where Opponents can themselves estimate your policy options.

Here is a Post where I do not assume any of the Scenarios are exactly truthful, but where the estimation is highly significant. The Reader should study it in its various aspects to determine exactly the place where the plausible likelihood will fall. The boundaries of expressed behavior is outlined, though the final reaction will be less, demonstrably found somewhere inside these extreme positions. The Reader will feel like none of the extremes are viable in an complicated world of vying Powers, but it must be assumed that all Policies will fall somewhere within these extremes. We must determine how great will be the cultural reaction, and how much such a reaction will be countered by competitive forces. I can explain to the Reader that business management faces similar conditions every day, simply of lesser magnitude of impact; except for the continuous threat of bankruptcy.

Here I present a real Case in Point on the discussion. We are exactly at that point of estimation which We have been discussing. Business leadership and Stockbrokers are developing expectations on the level of profitability and loss to BP under conditions of paying for the Clean-up of the Oil spill in the Gulf. Everyone will be satisfied if their Expectations come close; everyone will lose if it costs a great deal more than expected. Everyone is trying to limit their exposure to such Costs, but face a Government which insists on an intense liability; as contretemps that it is a Social Welfare Cost of an industry necessary for optimal social benefit; no one likes the ideation that such Incidents are the natural product of such technology, and that there is a Social responsibility. We must regress to the subject at hand, and ask where the Reader would put their money, how much would they be willing to risk, and how large a premium would the Reader demand for such supply of Cash. I welcome the Reader to the real World! lgl

No comments: