Long-Haul Trucking

The U.S. Truck Driver Shortage:
Analysis and Forecasts
PREPARED FOR:
American Trucking Associations
BY:
Global Insight, Inc.
May 2005
http://www.truckline.com/NR/rdonlyres/EFEEB145-58B7-4C1A-AE19-33BED578D7AF/0/ATADriverShortageStudy05.pdf

Sound expression of the Labor shortage which will retard the American economy with the retirement of the Baby-Boomers. The Analysis based most projections upon statistics derived from several Sources, but using the primary base of The Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projection of the Bureau of Labor Statistic. They estimate 1.3 million long-haul Truckers were on the Road in 2004, and that there will need to be 320,000 more before 2014, if the Economy maintains a 3% Growth rate over the next 10 years.

The Study outlines how the demographics are against the necessary increase in Trucker numbers, citing the need to hire 219,000 new Truckers to replace the scheduled retiring Workers (this not being an Occupation where hiring elderly Workers is viable). It states industry analysts regularly suggested the average Trucker Income must increase from the mid-$40k to about $65k.

There is good news and bad news to all this. The good news states there is Employment opportunity for laid-off Construction labor, if the Housing Bubble bursts--even Today, with a already-present 20k Trucker shortage. The bad news comes in several parts: the Trucking industry will face both above-level Labor Costs and Fuel Costs; the Fuel Usage for 320k more long-haul drivers raises Consumption an additional 4 million+ gallons (Guess-estimate) per Day, something current Refining production cannot supply; and increased Freight charges alongside Labor shortages, will throw the Projections for Economic Growth of 3% per year for the American economy out of the window. lgl