Thursday, June 30, 2005

Spending Flat?

The PCE index holds the power to deceive, as all the Spending increase comes in the volatile elements. Your basic Energy components rose almost 70% since the first of the Year, but Energy is still being stripped from the PCE without even attempt to reflect an Averaged input. The only thing this Price index indicates is the fact Retailers especially, but Business overall, has lost Pricing Power--due to the need to generate Sales.

May through September are the heavy Construction months (note that We are in late June), in the midst of a Housing boom purportedly. These should be the greatest diesel use months, but note growth of diesel use has dropped to 5.7% from 7% in the last Energy Information. There were only 78,000 new Jobs created last month, and the 4-Week average for new Jobless claims dropped, so why the 0.2% Income growth rate? The new Jobs plus the lack of Layoffs could account for the registered Income growth.

The United Nations reduced projected Global growth from 4.1 to 3%, because of the higher Energy prices. Realistic fact: EU, Africa, Russia, Latin America, Middle East, and British Commonwealth would not account for the 1.1% drop; this meaning bad news coming from China, India, U.S., Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Indonesia and Malaysia facing declining per capita growth because of poor Government policy. Now Russia intends to further cut Oil production by seizing Yukos assets outside its borders. lgl


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