Economic Growth

Timing remains everything in Economics, and curtailment of foreign investment in the U.S. economy may have already started in Q2, though any indication as yet is small. What if the downturn is real and will accelerate in following Periods? It would mean foreign confidence in American economic growth is waning. This lack of confidence will, in itself, act as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Government, industry, and Consumer will be compelled to reduce their economic activities, lacking the revenues to continue current trends.

Where does the World stand in terms of economic growth?

The World Population grows, but it is also Ageing, so the percentage of Working Age Population is declining as a percentage of total Population. This was previously true only for the basic Developed Nations, but the reality collects more nations yearly. The entire World will be looking for Labor within a score of years. Mining Operations (for everything from Oil to Iron and Minerials) have scraped off the surface deposits, and while there is still plentitude, the wealth lies deeper and harder to mine. It will take more technology and Labor to extract, and a greater level of Investment. All will require more Energy and Time, so less material will be brought to the surface for use. Reduced Economic Growth will come as Time passes, but what will it mean?

Many will think loss of Standard of Living. They will be wrong! We cannot lose any of the Standard of Living, without loss of the Labor elements to be drafted from the Population. What will occur is transfer back to Mass Transit modes, development of Long-Life Products, and Housing which maximizes Agricultural reclamation--not luxury living. A cessation of actual economic growth will alter Business practice as well, not least removal of Stock Grants and Stock Options from the Benefits package--as they have turned into drect erosion of Stockholder equities. Skilled Labor will be the key to success again.

Could I be wrong?

I estimate this World cannot acquire even another billion of human population, without the acute shortage of Potable Water. Fresh Water is already at a premium, and current Business practice shrinks the available amounts daily. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry itself necessitates a heavy degree of Water, mostly Fresh, and the human population cannot survive without them. We need to replace forest, and other sources of CO2 conversion. We need to start Today, to built for the future. lgl