Friday, August 11, 2006

Soft Landing

EDmund Andrews had an article where he expresses the doubt of many Economists that the Fed can effect a 'Soft Landing' slowdown of the Economy while suppressing Inflation. Some excerpts:

Many other economists contend that inflation is more entrenched and will be more painful to reverse than the Fed thinks. Others predict that inflation will indeed subside, but only because the economy will weaken much more than the Fed is expecting.

To be sure, economists differ on how weak the economy already is or how severe inflation pressure is. And skepticism abounds on the chances of achieving a true soft landing.
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There often is depressed Thinking when economic activity stands less than robust. One Economist cited in the article, Robert Gordon, even states the Economy is ripe for stagflation. Can a Soft Landing be affected? Certainly! How?

The major detriment in the Economy at the Present is Government Spending. There are methods to curb such Spending, though no one inside or outside the Administration likes to speak of it. The easiest and sole way to curb Government Spending is to cut Defense Spending. We need to get out of Iraq, get out of Afghanistan, and slash almost all Weapons development.
Sound like Treason? It is not!

Iraq must establish its own Government and Society, as must Afghanistan. Nothing which American troops can do will forestall potential Terrorist Recruitment and Training in either nation post American occupation, and leavetaking is to the benefit of All. The United States military is the most technologically-advanced force in the World, and cutting Weapons development will not hamper this supremacy more than marginally; easily rebounded in the face of Threat with the Research already accomplished.

Cutting U.S. military contracts would save the most Federal revenues at the least Cost. Far less personnel would face Unemployment, and they would enjoy greater advantage in finding other work. The households of these Employees are among the most inflation-generating of all households, spending widely and rapidly on the entire range of Consumer products. Cutting military contracts would reduce Materials Demand about 8-11% for Metals, 4-12% for Energy, and take the edge off Wage Demand. Just because Politician and General state We require such Expenditures for Safety, does not assure that the Need is even real.

Why have I brought up all of this? Cancellation of those military Contracts will rid the American economy of inflationary pressures, without supplying any real suppression of the economy at all. Unemployment is minimized, Business Profits are predictably cut by about 15%, and draft of material resources will be cut so that materials Pricing could witness a 10-30% drop in prices. Is that likely? As likely as the Fed getting a Soft Landing out of the current mix. lgl

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