Sunday, May 31, 2009

The difficulty of Economic Interpretation

I read this thing, which by the way is very well-written, and I am reminded about the hubris surrounding the debate to financially fuel Us out of the Recession. We are putting all Our eggs in one Basket, and pronouncing that because it worked before, that it will work again. It would be believable except that the argument that it worked before can be contested in many ways, and circumstances in the current Recession and the Boom preceding it vary markedly from the previous eras. The Unemployment rate was lower in the previous Two Booms than was evident ever before, though the Social Welfare Costs had never been higher. Total Employment was immense in real terms, but Wage erosion has become a major defect in the last two decades; though Many may find it undetectable, due to its working by elimination of Incentive Pay and Productivity Raises being limited to only program design personnel. Lifestyle quality has gone up dramatically since 1980, but only through the creation of a huge Consumption Credit Debt, which insists on Boom conditions in order to be repaid; this Consumer Credit vying with the federal debt as a major threat to the economy. It all means that the economy has been expressing a hyperactivity through the last two Booms, and the Recessions only reflects the exhaustion incited by the intensity of the productivity; a performance which cannot be financed except through Debt aggregation, later impossible to repay without the intensity of economic activity.

The major point I am trying to make consists of the fact that We are creating a Productivity model based upon what may be unviable debt; One which may not be able to function without repayment of that debt, and One where such debt cannot be repaid without accumulation of more debt. I am very insecure with this assessment, as debt increase may be a component of technological advance; this meaning that it becomes a discussion of the aggregate levels of debt which is allowable without economic detrition. Economics is all about balance, and it is often a Judgement Call as to the stress which can be imposed in that balance. lgl

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