The Sea Change Necessary

I found this excellent Post through a link with Greg Mankiw. I do not know that I agree with all of Keith Hennessey’s motivations, though I truly applaud him for possessing the most consistently rational Thought on the Carbon issue. China, India, and Indonesia will not respond to any form of pressure on Carbon mounted by the EU and US, basically because Population pressures would preclude effective Carbon limits in those nations. South America and Africa could not overcome cultural preferences and lack of education in their usage of Carbon products. Only the MidEast and Brazil possess the natural capacities to maintain a tight Carbon schedule through alternate Energy sourcing, and this includes both the US and EU. No nation will likely be capable of Carbon suppression in the face of increasing native Population, with even American and European development of Housing and Plant obviating any potential Gains from Carbon reduction in both the Short and Intermediate Terms. There can be no relative advantage to Carbon reductions which do not actually present Profit to Business, and such technology as exists is being adopted without Carbon taxation of any type; the modern Business profile being highly conscious of social response to deviant practice.

I have utilized a Volcanos scale before in my Writings on the Greenhouse Issue. Any Volcano can generate more Ash and Greenhouse gas than any decade of Carbon suppression can forestall. Physicists have been slow in evaluating either the Heat parameters of Volcanos or Population centers in understandable terms–like BTUs. Comparisons can be drawn between them would be drawn if this was accomplished; my Thought being that a Population center of around 8 million Souls possesses the same Heat emission over Time, the difference being that Volcanos are periodic and Population centers are constant Emitters. The real Problem states that We have created too many Volcanos equivalent on the Earth. Carbon suppression will reduce this Heat generation in only minor ways, understanding the normal human endeavor for a comfortable life.

The Answer We produce can never depend on Carbon suppression. A tight Carbon suppression program, as envisioned by some fanatics, might fancifully reduce the total Heat generation by an idealized 8-9%, with easy failure to reduce either Heat or Carbon upon breakdown or mismanagement of the systems–a probability exceeding 40%, with the Ageing of the technological systems. What We need is to attack the Problem frontally, with a program to reduce the Heat generated by human occupation of this world. I do not know How this can be done, nor does the Scientific community; but it is Time that We should start finding out. I would call for an immediate Conference on Radiant Heat, with the deliberate intent of determining the magnitude of the emitted Heat from identified sources, and methods to reduce this emission. Secondly, there should be Research funds available for the creation of Heat absorption units that translate the captured Heat into viable Energy sourcing. It might sound like a ‘Crackpot’ idea, but so do most of the Carbon suppression programs. lgl