What is your Problem?

Claire Miller gives Us a good discussion on the Venture Capital Crisis. It is sad that it lacks the presence of Consumer Demand, which is Why there is a Crisis in the first place. Venture Capital rests upon Consumer Demand, which requires the creation of new desire for Product in the Consumers. This requires a healthy input of Advertising, which must be successful. The later insists on some degree of innovation which is demonstrably New and Exciting. The criteria here revolves around Consumer awareness of the Product being somehow Special, not to be found elsewhere. A rehash of old functions in a new Package will not excite the honest Consumer interest necessary for Venture Capital success. A great share of the Auto problem derives from the lack of development of the next thing past SUV or Crew-Cab pick-ups. Technical Products are like Clothing, and must come up with a new Style to sell, and there are relatively few opportunities for Venture Capital elsewhere, except for Credit Default Swaps; We all know how they turned out. The Consumer must be enticed with something real again, not just Ad hype.

One cannot have a thin Skin in this life, and my Students should read this article which discusses the structure and nature of college rejection letters. Often such letters are the first adult rejection received by the Student, and Parents should not sugarcoat such things for their children. People are going to face a lot of such rejection in their lives. There is on average about 17 Job application rejections before One can get a Job in American society. The average current Retiree from the American Job market has worked for 6-8 Businesses, been Fired from one, had two go Out of Business, and been Laid-Off or Downsized from the rest. You find out continually that you have been superceded by a more qualified individual (yaa, Right!) in receiving a promotion about twelve times. Life is not fair, and no one cares about your household bills but yourself. It is not rugged individualism so much, as it is who gives a damn! Get used to it!

Here is a new technique which is more Interesting, though I wonder if the prediction rate will vary that drastically from the traditional, or achieve greater Insight in the trouble. They obviously have not run their own model form through their own calculations to determine how often it will to achieve the End desired. All Situations involving multiple input factors will generate a multiple Solution set, of which only about 15% of Solutions are in any way viable in the matrix. The Solutions are winnowed by further math processes, until there is a limited set of viable options to choose from by policymakers. The optimum solution has invariably already been subtracted from consideration somewhere in the Process, and the lobbying process of Special Interests in the political sphere will complicate any chosen venue, so the Risk has not been lessened in any manner. It is a great effort, but one which will be ignored, even if proven consistently Right; all within the realm that the model will fail somewhere based upon its own calculations. lgl