Wednesday, November 25, 2009

That is not what I said!

We find there is real debate starting over the whole issue of Stimulus. Here is the problem in a nutshell: Recessions come repetitively, and in modern times, never seem to fade away. The traditional Solution, according to economists, is to utilize Government Spending as Stimulus to the economy. John Meynard Keynes, back in the early 1930s, postulated that the World economy was broken, deficit Government Spending could kick-start the economy by putting substantial funds into the hands of Consumers. His view, though vastly more complicated, was that the Great War had revolutionized the World economy, with Business pushing for mass production with minimal labor. He considered the Period between the Great War and the Great Depression the gestation period required to fully establish a greatly enhanced labor pool, but with only a sporadic labor market. He estimated that a Scenario like the War Draft was needed to absorb labor with payment, so as to supply the Consumer revenue necessary to fully develop a productive Private Sector production fitting the total population. He expected it to be a One-Shot short Period of Government sponsorship, and did not publish his doubts about the repetitive use of the deficit spending.

Keynes was later pressured to alter his initial Concept, with little venue under a very Liberal Government to present alternate comments on a mass distribution. Keynes was in some ways as honored for what he did not say, as for what he did say. We has been somewhat faced with this process ever since; everyone proclaiming the virtues of Stimulus, with few articulating their doubts about the accomplishments attained by it. The reality states that Recessions occur with far greater frequency than political desires to pay down Government debt, and there is even bitter opposition to ending Stimulus efforts; until such time that all Parties have received their share of free Pie. The Process has left the realm of economic policy, and entered Politics; all the while costing Taxpayers a significant portion of their Income–through taxation, or by absorption of their sources of Credit. The real thing resulting in massive Debt, sustained Unemployment, and the inability of Consumers to fund their Consumption.

Are the Liberals of the western World leading those poor Chinese Communists down the Primrose path? It is known that the five largest Chinese banks are searching for recapitalization after underwriting the Chinese Stimulus of over $1 trillion. The entire World may be getting tired of all the Governments of the World with their added Demands for an extended Credit line. This is not to say that these banks will have much difficulty with the recapitalization; Most know a family relative in the Chinese Secret Police. The study of Worldwide markets, though, indicate that the great economic dynamos need more than a minor kick-start. I am still betting on the United States to lead Us out of the Recession, I simply will probably not enjoy the methods used; simply signifying that the next Recession will come sooner. lgl

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