Sunday, January 10, 2010

Moma used to love me, but she died!

Those persistent young economists who search for good material should source this Post by Rajiv Sethi. Paul Samuelson goes way back in the economics profession, and led the profession forward for many of those decades. Do I read Paul Samuelson?–No! Way too complex modeling for an old farmer like me, yet Paul touched base with everything. He was always concerned with the definition of the model in How the economy operated; intrinsically believing there was a viable mathematical model which could be devised. I, on the other hand, have never given a damn about a pretty and precise model, only wanting to know where We were going next in the economic context. Paul always believed that Controls could be placed upon the economy by modeling recent economic events, while I threw Gamblers’ dice, and set Odds on where the economy was going next. Paul Samuelson remained renowned throughout the World, while at Most, I am considered an Aftershock placebo. Just remember that I am a almost Nice Guy, and at least as jovial as an Investment Banker.

James Manzi attempted an essay perhaps comparative to my own style, and got caught in the act. He compared Apples to Oranges, and estimated the cost of Peaches. Do not pound on the man, as he is already having a bad time. This of course is not a defense of Manzi, but it is a critique of Those who would defile him. It is kind of like unto Rap Music; even if I can understand it, I don’t see why people think it is so great! American economic data is exactly like Rap, hard to understand and oversold in the impression market. Critiques of the European economies never advance a fair evaluation of the American economy, while Recessionary impacts are probably about 12% less in Europe than America. It reminds me of Generals and Staff Officers: First to take Cover, and last to Rise. Of course, this is not very well researched either!

My state of mind today may be most influenced by this article. A great Share of the great Numbers of past American success are standing idle today, with no indication of a predatory leap back to extreme performance. I think the American economy most resembles Dubai, trying to sell the tallest building in the World. I have not been to Europe lately, but cannot imagine they have closed up like a clam upon sight of danger, like the American economy. I still await the downfall of China, which cannot forever survive the tubular failures of rapid expansion. I will withhold my final opinion on all economies, until such Times as I get some Readings on the levels of recoverable Capitalization across the industries, once they do start back to work. I believe We are back to the Specter of building skeletons and decaying aged machinery. lgl

No comments: