This is that time of year where everyone expects me to make some idiotic predictions, which are always thrilling in their exposition, and comic in its final resolution. The trouble is that I do not feel particularly predictive this time. Still, you ought to give the children something. I decided therefore to give you this article to give a particular base to my first prediction. It is a basic Statement that Americans cannot look to foreign Sales of domestic Product to aid in a restart of our economy; subsistence living does not encourage high-end Consumption. Reality states that a devaluing dollar cannot keep pace with declining Export sales, in the face of declining Incomes–the first major aspect of the coming year.
The second great prediction states that the great promise of the Tech sector is only that, and that there will be no great level of Sales past the Innovation market. Some ratty, old economic models of myself indicate that for Consumers to upgrade from currently operating equipment under a position of constant Income, there will be no purchase if the upgrade costs more than 8% more than the current operating equipment purchase price. The current upgrades are looking for around a 40% purchase cost increase, and there will be little Sales provided beyond your basic Tech-junkie class. Tech stocks are overvalued, and the degradation of Profits in reduced Stock values will further injure an ailing economy.
The third great prediction is that Inflation is a hidden, stalking lion; awaiting some minor Trigger to flare in force. The beast will come out with massive leap, and will be almost uncontrollable for about 22 months. The end-result will be the transfer of national deficit debt from foreign to domestic subscribers; foreign sales of Treasuries declining because of loss of true exchange Product, and domestic subscribers attracted to the only remaining constant Return investments. There will not be a double-dip recession–just dismal growth, made up of only inflationary increments in Product pricing. I could go on for hours in such esoteric discourse, but I fear the loss of my audience. I will finish with a Happy New Year–with all subject qualifications. lgl