I will not say that either Steve Roach or Paul Krugman make sense, as being deep in Right Field is as bad as being deep in Left Field; those short, outfield Sliders will score on you every time. No one seems yet willing to admit that Exports will help no one–not even the Japanese. You must structurally alter your domestic economy in order to ease a Recession; Exports are only Icing on a Cake, one has to look to the later if one wants any real Nutrient. We all need to relax, and stop trying to grind Profits out of this mess. The first thing to do is dismiss Exports as a relevant factor; physical quantities of Product and Material is not likely to alter much under stressed conditions. Any alteration of Paper exchanged under such Trades is almost worse than bureaucracy; which thinks all those filled papers are utterly necessary. Physical loss in the interior of an economy cannot be corrected by exterior effects upon that economy.
I sometimes wonder if my Readers should not read Mark Thoma rather than myself (it is where I have gotten all my material so far today), as I might appear as more Chocolate than Fruit. Get out this Piece, and suggest all Politicians utilize present bias in trying to restart the economy. One would have to combine present bias with a Rebate system across a wide range of Products to produce any deducible effects, but a proper Rebate program would reduce oversupply of much Production on a continuous basis. One of the best ways to utilize present bias/Rebates is a lottery system where an effective Rebate is awarded to any Consumers who purchased Products with the most oversupply for the month. Many would argue for Tax Credits for this Rebate, though I would imagine the best method would be actual Cash awards, with the presentation of Sales slips. This Cash would present the greatest chance of immediate Consumption. I am talking about a Government program here, with heavy pressure to insert Mad Money for Consumption; not any value for Private Profits.
I am now at the place where I should somehow connect the two previous paragraphs, and somehow present a directional summation. This is always where it gets tricky! What I am trying to state today must be that economic misfortune is always an internal affair, with all Incentives rather immaterial unless they are directed toward an internal reordering of economic direction. The secondary element must portray that all economic initiatives taken should have long-term consequence, so that the internal changes are permanent. The Correction must alter what is, and maintain that alteration into an on-going boom. Many will claim that this is twisting the market system, but it is exactly this Twist which is necessary for maximum optimum performance in the economy. It is also a Call to rid ourselves of all the junk which doesn’t work and shows favoritism to heavy-spending political contributors. lgl