The Author makes another of his off-the-Wall predictions: The Recreational Vehicles will not be seen on the Road this Year, after the Winter Seniors reach Home. What could be the significance of this? The Price of Gas has risen too high for Recreational Use. We are looking at a lousy Vacation season this Year.
Land Travel vacations can be estimated to drop by over 30% year on year. The RV campers will probably only make one-third of the rallies which have become traditional. State and Federal Park revenues will likely drop by over 25%. Hotel vacancies will be up an expected 12-15%, with Motel vacancies up by almost 25%. Tourist Feature and Amusement Park attendance could be cut in half. The Author may have missed some hidden resilience in the American Tourist, but he does not believe this true.
He also believes We have witnessed the end of the Import Saga, with declining Trade imbalances from this point onward. The rationale: Credit Cards balances keep rising, the SUVs keep gulping the Gas (at $2/gallon), and no one is getting great Pay Raises. The percentage decline in physical Imports will exceed the percentage increase in Import pricing. Mortgage rates and the mortgage credit are still great, but the Furnishing Costs are becoming excessive.
The Above will be a boost in the arm for the American economy. Domestic Substitute Products will replace all the glorious Imports within the Production schedule, as Import pricing rises. Americans will go back to work, as America and EU recovers much of the lost Trade advantage from China, who faces rising Transportation and Production Costs, Transportation bottlenecks, higher Oil prices, and a rebounding Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. We may finally be in the Recovery phase. lgl
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