Monday, July 17, 2006

Year over Year Readings

I wonder at the Readings We are getting now in the economy. Year over Year readings can be an expression of Inflation more defined than any other, if actual Volume Output remains relatively the same or reduces. Industrial Production is a Case in point: Vehicle Volume is down, Utilities usage has been relatively stable, and Business Inventories has been rising with a slight decline in ReOrders. The Year over Year reading increase of better than 4.5% for Industrial Production indicates real Inflation in the primary-base Sector. It does not help that Consumer Demand can be seen as faltering; Retailers raise base Prices during declining Sales, to be able to claim high Discount Sales. The BLS can still play with the numbers, but Inflation is present; Fed action will only further deterioate Business stability without eliminating any of the Inflationary pressures.

The G-8 leadership wants a 2-Week extension of the timeline for Talks, so they can avoid admission that the Doho round of Trade talks was a complete bust. None of the Conflicting Interests in the Talks can alter their basic positions, due to the fact any concessions would be overruled by the political process in their homelands. Most Economists would insist this reality is deplorable. I would not! The truth states all Participants would have to absorb real-loss Costs, while few Gains would be realized, and None in the Short-term. Failure of the Doho Round should be seen as a success.

This Author also disagrees with the general Economic disgust with the practice of Regulation. It would seriously save many of the current Economic costs of high Energy pricing, with real Government curtailment of Supply; remember, shortages of Energy supply propels Energy Conservation and technological innovation. Schedules to bring Energy Savings technology online can be cut to One-Third of current Planning, and artificial constraint on Energy implanted by Government could be multiple times the Inflation Fighter, as is already excessive Interest rates. There is a place for Regulation in the Economy. lgl

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