There once was a Time where Farming was an occupation and avocation; now it is only an Investment portfolio. The Change came from the management of Risk coupled with the elimination of hard labor, farmers replaced with Agronomists, and All dependent upon a high-fuel technology which is becoming super-expensive. The only Problem foreseen contains the kernel that farmers are being priced from the Market, and education in current practices of Agriculture comes with excessive Cost which cannot be spread. Long-term Trends will assure that there will be shortage of trained Labor within the next decade for Agriculture, and without this skill, there will be a loss of Agricultural Profits. Various methodologies to recapture trained Labor will fail, due primarily to the investiture of the new Investment capital which absorbs the farm product Profits.
I include this Piece simply because I want to cause confusion in my Readers. I challenge them to explain how this Post impacts the previous paragraph, and why. The growth in IT has brought both knowledge and Profits to Agriculture, but Production Costs maintained by Corporate suppliers have compelled the reeducation in IT for Agriculture. Risk Management, on the other hand, has insisted on academic accreditation in Agriculture; this means that Practitioners must have collegiate Degrees while continually updating their IT capacity, before even turning to the real labor of farming. Labor entrance is too expensive, and Agricultural Pricing remains too low to pay both for Investment and Wage Returns for Labor specialization.
I love this Post from Arnold! It actually highlights one of the growing Problems with Economics. I call it the Inflation of Management Risk. Here is how it reads: Economic models are continually being developed by bright young Economists. Hard data and Testing assure that the models actually express real economic reality. Everyone says ‘Wow!’ and adopts the model in question. This is all well, but then sensory factors take hold. The incidence of Exceptions increase with expansion of the program (failures increase in number), and the Cost of those Exceptions appreciate in Value (double-digit inflation over the length of the Risk management). Economic models tend to breakdown at the extremes, and economic programs erode under the impact of inclusion policies which both multiply the potential Risks, and eliminates potential cushions from Risk implementation. Anyway, any Government program begins to fail once you start to pour Cash into it! lgl
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