Why I am not an Investment broker

I would first like to apologize to those sparse Readers who have been disappointed by my late filing of this blog entry; I was busy babysitting a Dog for my Sister who had an operation yesterday–my parents just left Me home alone. It fits in well with the rest of my commentary, though. I don’t know what it is about Jackson Hole, but everyone reaches for the Big Sky speech, whoever goes there. Ben Bernanke finds himself describing the financial crisis as ‘gale force’; a subject that can be translated as a lot of people he grew up with in the Banking world are going to lose a lot of money before this is over, though it might have substantially much less impact on the general economy. He imagines that the Fed can save these people from the losses inherent, but that may be a forlorn hope. Ben dreams of a Day where Financials actually respond to the Fed, doubtful of conceptualism, and perilous of implementation. He has yet to answer ‘What if’ Fuel prices and Inflation does not abate through the rest of the year.

Some people may have made some Money over this One. They should realize that $114 is a current Touchstone, and no one should be Short or Long in my estimation until some Trend has formed. There will be Players in the Oil markets, but I expect they will take a bath, though I might change my mind if the Oil price were to drop below $110. There has been some shaky activity in Natural Gas today, and I expect it will impact the Oil price. Don’t think too highly of Energy until the rationale behind that is pinned. Last of all, Never Take My Advice!! I have been known to lose other peoples’ money.

The last Point I would mention today is the value of the Euro. The British economy is stalling, so the Pound should lose value. The EU most closely resembles the American economy, and Fed interventions, if Bernanke keeps to his goals, will bring a closer alignment. This tells me that the long-term trend of the Euro should be down, to more closely align with the American Dollar. I don’t think this will be a quick shift, but the potential exists over the next 48 months. People will ask me to quantify this information, and I will say the Euro is not likely to drop below 1.22; the real Problem here is the length of Time which it might require. lgl