Civil War Onset

Sensitivity Analysis of the Empirical Literature on Civil War Onset
Håvard Hegre (Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO)
Nicholas Sambanis (Yale University)*
Paper presented to the 46th annual meeting of the
International Studies Association, Honolulu, HI, 1-5 March 2005
February 23, 2005

A good Study, at least from the viewpoint of rigor. It's real failing lies in the lack of specificity in the Studies which it analyzed. These Studies all utilized Correlation values which were not sufficiently defined. This Author is an old Class-warrior, who suggests Economic growth in itself holds little significance. He proposes civil war onset economically centers upon the development of a Middle Class, without which opposition to the current regime remains splintered and incoherent. Rebellion within this Middle Class develops from regime intransigence in sharing power, or in lack of remuneration for the specialty of their productive effort. A further extension would highlight the need for the Middle Class to have invested some significant element of the standing Military.

The strength of political institutions upon civil war onset depends upon the failure of these institutions to subscribe and support the economic interests of the Middle Class. The instability of the region seems overrated, except for development of accessory centers of power--religious, business, or Trade unionism. All Studies do little to clearly outline the real scope of foreign intervention for whatever ends. Almost all civil wars fail from loss of foreign support--directly financial, covertly or overtly foreign military supply, with implicit potential Sanctuary. lgl