Global Growth

The International Monetary Fund projects that the World economy will grow at 4.3% this Year, with 4.4% next Year. It also projects a 3.6% growth rate for the U.S. economy, with a Chinese growth rate equaling over 25% for the Years 2004-06. This is vastly over-optimistic as considered by this Author.

China has suffered vast financial damage through Corruption and malfunction of their Banking system, leaving them structurally unfit to finance major economic construction within the next Two Years. The IMF cites their Projection as dependent upon Oil selling on average around $46.50 a barrel this year and $43.75 in 2006. (Source: http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-World-Economic-Outlook.html) . The IMF states the most likely factors affecting the growth rate will be Oil price and Federal Interest rates in the United States.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/13/business/13prop.html
Rising Steel Prices Force Changes in Construction Plans
By SUSAN DIESENHOUSE Published: April 13, 2005

This article suggests a far different picture:

In construction, steel is pervasive. It is in structural frames, floor decks, ceiling grids, air-handling systems, wiring, plumbing, interior studs and bars that reinforce concrete. Last November, an index reflecting the cost of a theoretical market basket of steel products peaked at 412.6, according to the Producer Price Index compiled by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices then turned down and by January, the most recent month for which the index is available, they had eased off to 330.7, but this is still double the level of 165 in mid-2003.

All Construction materials have increased rapidly in Price, shoving Construction prices upward throughout the World--by an approximate total average Price rise of 15-20%. The hardest impacted areas of Construction is industrial Plant construction. China will not be able to finance new Construction, even by older Estimates which have since inflated drastically. Their inability to finance has worsened by another factor:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/13/business/13cnd-econ.html
Retail Sales Rose Just 0.3% in March as Fuel Costs Climb
By JENNIFER BAYOT Published: April 13, 2005

Excluding both categories - auto sales and gas spending - retail sales fell 0.1 percent, the first such decline since April 2004. The numbers represent an unexpected weakening in consumer spending, which for years has seemed indefatigable and today amounts to 70 percent of the American economy.

This Author's own Estimate:

The American Consumer Spending decline impacts China as greatly as the United States, with declining Retails Sales in the American market sharply constricting Chinese ability to finance economic growth. Total economic growth for China over Year 2004-06 will not make 15%. The Oil pricing is starting to impact American market, while Construction will downsize due to rising Interest rates and Budget-busting Materials Costs. The United States is unlikely to do better than the EU, unless American production starts to produce for the American market. lgl