Durable Goods

Durable-Goods Orders Sank in March for 3rd Month in a Row
By JENNIFER BAYOT Published: April 27, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/27/business/27cnd-econ.html?

To predict whether companies will need to spend on buildings or machinery in the next few months, economists often subtract military spending, another volatile sector, in addition to transportation spending. Using that measure, new orders fell 3 percent, deepening a 4.2 percent decline this year. Only orders for primary metals and communications equipment gained new orders, rising 1 percent and 5.1 percent respectively

A truly good article for a Newspaper! It mentions that Unfilled Orders dropped by 0.5%, which assures a lack of hiring in the Manufacturing sector even if it is not an absolute 'Dictat'. The 14.3% decline in Transportation basically reflects decline in Aircraft Sales, but this Author worries if there has also been a slide in Heavy Trucks (not mentioned). Such a reduction could mean fewer Consignment orders. The Forecasts predicting higher Oil pricing would affect the Economy less than in the 1970s were in error, it simply delayed the Timing of the impact.

Oil selling at less than $53 per barrel serves as no relief, and Gasoline stocks being drawn down 300,000 barrels did not help. The American Economy is in a Supply-driven Price inflation, and the increased Crude stocks will only mean higher Pump prices throughout the summer. Greenspan and the Fed had better impose another Interest hike, or We will have raging Inflation at the Retail level. No Fed reduction of Rates will help economic performance, as Business Interest savings cannot match the Fuel Cost increases. It also will not forestall any potential Slowdown, not with

Inventories stockpiled for the 16th consecutive month, up 0.4 percent, to $291 billion, suggesting that manufacturers would soon cut production. Stores of primary metals like steel posted the largest increase, 2.6 percent, to $23.5 billion. lgl