Friday, April 01, 2005

Oil Prices

The Author has long assumed that the Oil Spike was generated solely by Speculators. The Goldman Sachs report only confirms it, with Hedge Funds driving up the latest Oil increase. He cannot get hard Stats(confirmed), but the Author estimates actual Oil production is increasing by 20-22 Thousand barrels per day, American Gas refining is about 4,000 barrels per day higher than in 2004, and China's Oil consumption is about 8,000 barrels per day below Peak last year--and not expected to increase this year. Confirmation of the actual usage would be appreciated by this Author.

The Job report from BLS directly reflects Oil Price constraint upon the American economy. The lowered UnEmployment rate of 5.2% is the serenity before the Storm--the Author estimates next month's rate will be 6.0%, if Oil Prices do not come down. Construction spending was only marginal in the face of new Housing Starts, highlighting Firms' distaste for the Fuel Cost of whole load purchases. Piece-meal purchase of Construction materials as needed, will raise the cost of Housing by an approximate 11% if unchecked. This All at a time when American Crude Oil stocks are at an all-time high.

Pump prices will drastically affect economic growth over the next two months because of the speculation Today, due to running through the Pipeline. The only Thing which will forestall the adverse effect is the unwarranted Speculation takes a bath within the next Ten days. The Author hopes the Speculators lose half the net worth, so as to stop this perversion of Market clearing. lgl

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