Sunday, July 31, 2005

Economic Fuel

GDP Revised Down 2001-2004
Posted by John Irons at July 29, 2005 04:34 PM
http://www.argmax.com/mt_blog/archive/000557.php

Revisions to 2002-2004 estimates

The percent change from the preceding year in real GDP was revised down for all 3 years: From 1.9 percent to 1.6 percent for 2002, from 3.0 percent to 2.7 percent for 2003, and from 4.4 percent to 4.2 percent for 2004.

This startles very little, because revisions of original data is common as more precise measurements are added. The consistent reduction through the Years also can be somewhat standard, simply based on types of measurements and Readings used. None of the foregoing is of especial concern; at least, until you look at the size of the yearly numbers, compare the Dates with Bush and Republican fuel for the economy, and collate with the data. 2002 was at stall speed, 2003 are ridiculous numbers considering how much Cash Federal spending threw into the economy, and 2004 should be degraded far below 4.2% to get an actual growth rate minus the (supposedly) one-time War expenditures.

This Author has always been skeptical of Keynesian fueling of the economy. The monetarist theory of low Interest rates does not jibe with the economic growth data either, as the Economy has taken off under the Fed raising Interest rates. It also suffers from the fact of no American Savings, and a huge American government draft of World financial resources. It must, in fairness, be stated that American Savings are basically hidden by current Economic models--which have yet to evaluate increased American involvement in new Housing and Investments. The two elements are not technically Savings, but not truly Consumption either.

This Author is so old-fashioned economically that he has come full circle. His belief states the only genuine economic fuel for an Economy stands as balanced Government budgets, where Taxes absorb Inflation, Government spending is curbed, and Government debt is the dinosaur. lgl

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