Different Attitude

I tried reading the CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2007 Update (pdf), at least, until I went to sleep at my desk. Menzie Chinn advises his Readers to pay attention to pages 11 and 12; I would advise simply to pursue the pages 40 and 42. The later pages are far easier to compare as to the validity of CBO and Administration Forecasts. What I like most about such Papers is the proven theorem that Numbers can confuse as well as highlight, and only firm grounding in the basics of Economics can save Anyone from intrinsic error.

E.J. Dionne presents an incisive argument for placing the Iraq/Afghanistan Wars in context with the rest of the Federal Budget. Several Questions should be asked about the Wars, which no one asks. What is the exact value of Our intervention in Iraq; what are the real consequences of chaos in Iraq to Our national interests. The Answer to that One is not much; in fact, pulling out unilaterally would alter the nature of Geopolitical demographics, with Mideast concentration on securing a Regional conflict, rather than resisting the United States or elimination of Israel. Are We really going to advance the cause of Democracy in Iraq, Afghanistan, or anywhere else in the Mideast? The Answer is No. This Region has about 4000 years of history, with Democracy never but a pale, unworkable Choice; always failing soon after introduction. The fact remains that wastage of American resources in the Region will never overcome a religious and cultural bias against the United States.

The correct policy for all of the industrialized world, not simply the United States, would be to drive home to the Mideast the real economic Cost of the provision of Goods and Services, without the West running scared from the loss of Oil supply. This would again call for a effective Tariff system, which almost all Economists rant against. Western Economists cannot endure the thought of discriminatory tariffs against the Underprivileged, simply because they are a bunch of Terrorist-sponsoring totalitarian Governments who happen to treat their own people as badly as their Terrorists treat Us. lgl