The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly

Some Indexes are down, and the Housing industry seems bleak, and Economists are sounding Notes of Caution. I study the News and Reports, and don’t feel it. Consumers have not yet made the transition to a harsh outlook. I remember the original movie ‘Fun with Dick and Jane’. Appearance is still more important with Consumers than is paying their Bills. I expect that GDP will continue to expand into the Spring, when We will have a hard landing. It is all a Question as to whether Households insist on one more good Christmas before reorganization–I really believe they will. I have been wrong before, especially when making Predictions, but Consumers are ignoring the acceleration of financial charges.

The price of Oil can only impact viciously in the long-term, as Faith Birol states in this article. The fact is that at $93/barrel, it will double-whammy both Consumers and Producers. The Fed dropping discount rates will only be fueling the Inflation, as I expect an 8% increase in Production Costs within 36 months, and the equivalent impact to Consumers of a Dollar/gallon Gas Tax without the revenue. The humor of the Situation is an equal belief that We will witness $40/gallon Gas within 48 months, because Speculators will destroy the propellent of the Consumers of the industrialized nations, the growth of China and India will not endure loss of Customers, and there will be a Worldwide glut of Oil–which is over-capitalized inside Recession-style Oil Demand. This article brings the entire argument into Prospective, as One asks what happens if Oil Demand drops by 35% Worldwide.

I refer you to James Joyner rather than N. Thomas Connally, because James has already scaled down for the economically relevant. Primary Care physicians have been cut in half in the last decade, though the Population continues to expand. Primary Care makes too little money, have too many Patients, and Doctors have to work too many hours. Joyner mentions the real danger of the current cap on Medical School slots, and refers in passing to the excessive Training demanded by all Graduates. Primary Care physicians must undergo 90% of the Training demanded of Specialists, without opportunity to score 90% of the Pay. People wonder why overall Medical Care is hard to find. lgl