A Short Dip into Reality

Josh White and the Congressional Democrats may be a little over the Top with their latest Report, but possibly not contemplating the long-term effects of the Wars. This means that they will cost probably in excess of $2 Trillion to the American Taxpayers, though not for the reasons cited. Oil price is dictated by Consumption patterns, and now with the additional consideration of Speculation. There is an immense increase in Demand for Oil through the manufacture of Weapons and Munitions, Transport of such to the War zones, and their usage in the field. No one else will estimate it, but I will contend it increased American Demand for Oil by around 12%. Understand this Increase probably generated about $7/barrel in added Oil price, strict Oil Demand Worldwide would place the price of Oil at a Production Cost of about $51/barrel; the rest of the $96/barrel comes from nothing other than Speculation. The Wars did contribute to the Cost of Oil, but it was only a numeric, not a geometric, progression.

The Report obviously utilizes widely-popularized Income statistics for Income, when concerning the Costs of withdrawing Labor for Service in the Military, and later Cost of Loss of Productivity by Those injured in the Wars. I would first like to say I support the Troops as much as Anyone, and possibly to greater extent, due to the circumstances of my life. The fact still remains that the average active Serviceman, Reservist, and National Guard member has a lower Educational attainment than the total Adult Average which is utilized to evaluate Income potential, and 90% of these veterans form a great segment of the Population which counterbalances the Incomes of the upper 30% of Income-Earners. Service in the Military might actually give the overall complement higher-Earning Job skills once they are home.

The real Cost of the War must be evaluated in terms of the material resources utilized in the conduct of the War. 30% of the Aircraft, 70% of the Helicopters, and 100% of the Patrol vehicles will have to be replaced in the Military. Some 25% of the Transport Aircraft will also have to be replaced. Huge amounts of Construction materials have been used in building Military bases which will one Day have to be abandoned. Relocation of Troops upon Removal from the War zones will cost about One-Third as much as the original Deployment, once We have to clean up after Ourselves. The World which We must operate within is not a cheap place to operate in, and is getting more expensive every day. The final Price for the Wars will be high, but Economists should focus on the actual Cost structure, not on wild claims. lgl