Wednesday, November 07, 2007

My Favorite Topic: Statistics

Why don’t I like this Report(pdf)? Could it be that Unit labor Costs has increased 4.4% through the 4 Quarters since the 3rd Quarter of 2006. Understand that the Wage levels of the lower 60% of Incomes have not risen substantially, Unit labor Costs being basically generated from the high-End, through health care Costs increases and advanced Executive salaries and bonuses. The BLS comment that these were the highest 4 Quarters since the same Period in 2000 did not help my sense of calm, especially because the gain in those 4 Quarters also mainly came from the same Profits-Taking venues. Untrained Readers may not understand that revenues going to these elements do not provide Gain to the Consumption function. One could even be refuted (Economists dislike uncomfortable Signs of adverse impact) for saying it might be considered a Predictor of Recessionary events to witness a rapid increase in such efforts.

I will not state that the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program needs fine-tuning, but I seriously imagine it is not capturing a routed downturn of labor hours worked; Management often having to work longer hours to plan a Layoff or Downsizing, maybe it is the double-counting of People employed in two or more Jobs. I can only suggest uniform Rules of data collection be used throughout the data collection process, at a 11-12% likely collection Cost increase, but a 30% greater security on the validity of the information. The BLS should attempt to get the information in a format which is trustworthy and comparable.

What I most clearly would desire is a separation of Wages from employers’ compensation for social insurance and private benefit plans. The later should be placed under its own separate Heading with combination with Bonuses, Stock Option and Grants, and interim year Wage increases. Some Economists would argue that such clarity would limit the Employment demand for their profession, but I think the reorganization of data would aid even them. lgl

No comments: